PUBLISHER’S CORNER Turning the Corner? WRITTEN BY TONY CORPIN |
TONY@STNONLINE.COM I
sure am excited to see what is in store for the school bus industry in 2023. Tere is a lot of excitement building around the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean School Bus Program, as the second round of funds is anticipated
to be released sometime in the second quarter of this year. It will continue to help school districts drive the adoption of low-emission and zero-emission school buses. On the flip side, we ended 2022 with economic and inflationary
headwinds being hot topics. Fears of a recession loom with contin- ued supply chain bottlenecks, volatile fuel prices, increasing costs on labor and raw materials being top economic trends. Te good news is the school transportation industry has consistently shown to be recession proof, so we can hope for more of the same in 2023.
All major OEMs have made big moves into school bus electri-
fication as have many new entrants. Keep in mind that school bus manufacturers are forecasting that one-third to a half of all new school bus sales in 10 years will be electric. States and individual school districts are leading the way by setting targets to make all school buses electric by 2035. Te Biden administration has doubled down on investing in
Industry insiders anticipate continued softness in the marketplace due to continued supply chain challenges and limited Type A chassis allocations from Ford and GM.
In a Q4 2022 earnings report, Blue Bird CEO Matt Stevenson
indicated record electric school bus sales and backlog. Tis is a great indicator of continued growth in new orders, but costs are on the rise. Blue Bird raised purchase costs by at least 25 percent, and other OEMs are following suit. I like to use the stock market as an indicator of economic health. I keep an eye on major publicly traded companies, particularly those aligned to the school transportation industry, for information and forward guidance. Overall, despite many industry companies nearing 52-week lows, the future outlooks are improving and point- ing to a strong recovery for many key suppliers. Another benchmark for industry health is new OEM school bus
manufacturing data. As reported on page 12, the latest numbers are up by 4.4 percent. Industry insiders shared with me that they anticipate continued softness in the marketplace due to continued supply chain challenges and limited Type A chassis allocations from Ford and GM. Clean diesel school buses remained the number one buying
choice with 19,567 units produced. Keep in mind diesel engines are going to be subject to more stringent EPA Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission requirements by 2027. Tis will increase overall diesel engine costs due to the engineering required to meet these new emission standards. Alternative fuel school bus purchases continued to be relatively
positive. While propane-powered school buses remained the green bus market share leader with 1,739 units sold, electric school buses ate into that lead and made near double-digit gains at 1,181 units sold. Gasoline school buses were up slightly to 10,321 units.
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green energy, so the velocity of green school bus adoption might increase exponentially if more grant funding is allocated. Plus, large public utilities have taken a strong interest in developing and funding school bus electrification projects so that will drive things forward too. Some transportation directors I have spoken with have embraced electric school buses. Others are apprehensive based on the battery range and the terrain the district covers. Plus, the price tag that ranges from $360,000 to $450,000, depending on bus type and features. Property taxes are always a major funding mechanism for operating revenue of municipali-
ties, school districts and transportation departments. According to the latest outlook by the National Association of Realtors, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts U.S. home prices won’t experi- ence major declines and could possibly rise slightly in 2023, even if mortgage rates remain at 7 percent. Yun expects home sales to decline by 7 percent and forecasts the national median home price to increase by 1 percent, with some markets experiencing price gains and others price declines. According to a recent STN readership study, over 510 subscrib- ers identified new technology products that they were interested in purchasing over the coming year (see the list on page 14). Te major 2023 buying trends I see are safety technology, green energy and route optimization and efficiency. Be sure to utilize this ultimate resource guide of contacts and data to discover new products and the companies that sell them. Also, I invite you to participate in the professional development training and networking opportunities we have to offer at the STN EXPO + Green Bus Summit and the TSD Conference. Learn more at
stnexpo.com. I’m proud to be part of an industry of stakeholders that cares about student success and equity. Let’s keep driving forward together. ●
School Transportation News Magazine | Buyer’s Guide 2023
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