WEEKLY NEWS


HOW CARRIERS ACROSS THE US, CANADA AND LATIN AMERICA ARE RE-BALANCING LIFT


AIR CARG O WEEK


BY Oscar SARDINAS


AS 2026 gets underway, one thing is already clear: airfreight capacity across the Americas has entered a more deliberate phase. The volatility of 2025 forced airlines to prioritise flexibility at almost any cost. This year, the emphasis has shifted toward control, predictability, network fit, and a more disciplined capacity environment. December’s fleet and network decisions, freighter conversions, wet-lease renewals and belly-capacity


assumptions, now define how much lift actually reaches the market. For carriers operating north–south trade lanes, 2026 projects to be about expansion and more about calibration.


Precision replaces blanket capacity Across the US, Canada and Latin America, airlines are entering 2026 with fewer open-ended bets.


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Rather than adding aircraft broadly, carriers are matching lift more tightly to proven demand. That shift mirrors a broader moderation in global air-cargo growth, with data showing that supply


expansion began to outpace demand early in 2025, prompting many planners to emphasise yield protection and network optimisation over broad expansion. Longer-term fleet strategy backs this approach. Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast highlights optimisation of existing fleets,


including extending the service life of converted freighters, as a key


response during periods of uneven demand, rather than accelerating new-build deliveries. In parallel, belly capacity has regained strategic importance as passenger schedules stabilise,


particularly between North America and key Latin American hubs. The result is a more segmented capacity landscape: dependable uplift on core lanes, paired with reduced frequency or consolidated schedules elsewhere.


North–south trade lanes, re-weighted The strength of north–south trade remains intact, but 2026 planning reflects lessons learned the hard way. Political risk, currency pressure and episodic disruption last year exposed the cost of over- concentration across key corridors. US–Mexico routes continue to attract consistent capacity commitment, supported by structurally


resilient manufacturing and trade flows. At the same time, economic uncertainty across parts of Latin America has driven more selective network planning, a trend outlined in the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere. In practice, this has translated into adjustments across South America, with some markets seeing


frequency consolidation in favour of fuller aircraft and tighter scheduling, particularly for perishables and pharmaceutical cargo, as carriers prioritise reliability over maximum frequency.


Wet-leasing grows up Wet-lease arrangements across the Americas are evolving beyond the emergency deployments that dominated the early part of the decade. Industry analysis suggests a shift toward more structured ACMI agreements, increasingly defined by seasonal triggers rather than permanent, year-round commitments. FlightGlobal has reported that airlines are rebalancing their use of wet-leased capacity, seeking


flexibility without locking in long-term cost exposure as demand normalises. This approach allows carriers to retain access to surge capacity during defined peaks, such as


agricultural export seasons or holiday-driven e-commerce flows, while protecting margins during softer demand periods. Industry analysis of ACMI/wet-leasing markets shows airlines increasingly use these arrangements as strategic capacity tools, enabling them to adjust operational lift quickly without the financial commitment of new aircraft purchases and to buffer against short-term disruptions or demand fluctuation.


What 2026 means for forwarders and shippers For forwarders, 2026 rewards planning discipline. Capacity, though available, is no longer assumed. Airlines are increasingly prioritising contracted volumes, proven lanes and customers willing to commit early, tightening booking windows for purely spot-driven demand. Shippers are encountering a clearer segmentation of products. Time-definite and temperature-


controlled services are being set aside more deliberately, while general cargo faces tighter access during regional peaks. Market reporting shows air cargo capacity tightening across major global trade lanes as demand pressures mount and carriers prioritise contracted and premium traffic, reinforcing the need for forwarders and shippers to plan earlier and secure space ahead of peak windows. At the same time, opportunity remains. Secondary gateways, alternative routings and hybrid belly– freighter solutions have become more viable as carriers optimise networks rather than chase scale.


A steadier year by design If 2025 was defined by reaction, 2026 is defined by intent. Across the US, Canada and Latin America, carriers are entering the year with a clearer sense of where capacity belongs, and where it doesn’t. For the broader air-cargo ecosystem, the implication is straightforward: success in 2026 will depend


less on finding capacity and more on understanding how it’s rationed. Those who adapt early will be better positioned than those still planning for a market that has already moved on.


ACW 26 JANUARY 2026


www.aircargoweek.com


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