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AVIATION’S CARGO FAULT LINES SHIFT AS TRADE, POLICY AND CAPACITY COLLIDE


BY Anastasiya SIMSEK


VOLATILITY, not growth, defined air cargo markets across the Americas in 2025. Airlines were forced to reassess routes, capacity commitments and investment plans as trade policy uncertainty, tariffs and regulatory friction reshaped flows across North America and Latin America. As one of the first sectors to react to macroeconomic change, air cargo


once again found itself exposed. “As an LEI, Air Cargo is among the first industries to be impacted by economic changes,” said Christian L. Platteau, Managing Director of Hermes Aviation de México. “Airlines are concerned and are quite conservative now about investment into new routes and opportunities.” The US–Mexico and wider US–Latin America markets have been shaped


less by demand swings than by structural shifts in trade alignment. Platteau points to a gradual rebalancing away from North America in parts of Latin America, driven by new agreements and geopolitical recalibration. “Latin America as a region has a diversity of production, and having


become more autonomous and detached from North American trade, the impact of the disruptions in flows into and from Latin America have been moderate,” he said. “There is a clear trend seen towards a reorientation towards Asia Pacific


and Europe and the Middle East as evidenced by the finalisation of the Mercosur and EU free trade zone.” Mexico sits at the centre of that tension. While the USMCA has anchored


Mexican trade within North America, its future is less certain. “With the USMCA at risk, Mexico could choose to reorient itself as well,” Platteau warned, noting that the agreement “has proven to be one of the most powerful tools to orient Mexican trade flows within North America, and away from the EU.” For airlines,


that uncertainty translates directly into conservative network planning and limited appetite for speculative capacity


Resilient cargo verticals Across commodities, performance has diverged sharply. Perishables remain the backbone of Latin American air exports, particularly out of Mexico, while other verticals have struggled under policy and cost pressure.


“Perishables continue to be the most stable export market, especially


out of Mexico and Latin America, and it will be quite difficult to replace on a short-term basis,” Platteau said. By contrast, automotive flows have weakened. “The automotive sector,


especially from Mexico, has suffered significant declines in 2025, due to its sensitivity to tariffs and supply chain obstacles.” e-commerce, once the engine of post-pandemic growth, has cooled —


but not collapsed. “e-commerce imports into the US and MX have been hit as well, however, the impact is not as severe as was expected, and e-commerce trade still continues on a high level,” he said. “But the exponential growth of e-commerce has cooled off at least temporarily.” Interestingly, uncertainty around US tariffs has created limited upside


elsewhere. “Air Cargo exports from Mexico to other regions of the world have benefited slightly due to uncertainty of tariffs, as importers seek to avoid the uncertainty associated with mainly transit via the US.”


Operating realities on both sides of the border For airlines looking to grow in North America and Mexico, the commercial challenges differ sharply, but margins are thin in both. “The USA has higher labour costs and is a highly competitive air export


market characterised by a high level of overcapacity, resulting in low yield and razor-thin margins,” Platteau said. “Airlines operating there are faced with a high cost–low profit scenario.” Mexico offers growth, but not without friction. “Challenges still exist with


labour regulations, security & safety levels, and ever-present bureaucratic red-tape, making it challenging to implement standardised structures & sales forces.” Hermes’ long presence in the market is positioned as a way to absorb


that complexity. “Hermes has been continuously operating as a GSSA in Mexico for over 25 years. In fact, we are one of the oldest GSAs in Mexico,” Platteau said, pointing to low employee turnover and nationwide coverage as a risk-mitigation tool for airline partners. As volatility increases, data quality and speed of decision-making have become central to sales performance. Hermes has leaned heavily into


integrated analytics rather than off-the-shelf solutions. “We embrace digital innovation not just for efficiency, but to enhance the


customer experience, especially within the booking and tracking process,” Platteau said. “Our systems are designed for transparency, speed, ease of use, and the ability to deliver meaningful commercial and sales KPIs to our partners.” Hermes draws on a mix of market intelligence platforms, including


Xeneta, WorldACD and CargoIS, combined with internal data sets integrated via PowerBI. “Our insights into commodity trends and shipper flows give us a competitive edge in forecasting demand and optimising capacity.” On the sales side, the company has moved towards more directive tools.


“Hermes now leverages much more directive sales tools, such as our own commercial management system,” Platteau said. “The business intelligence deliverables mean our sales staff has all available present and historical data for a client immediately accessible to evaluate each opportunity.”


Infrastructure, regulation and rising friction Beyond commercial pressures, physical and regulatory constraints continue to weigh on cross-border cargo. “Infrastructure-wise, the biggest challenge we face are the risks


associated with loss or theft when transporting goods overland in Mexico,” Platteau said. At the US border, stricter compliance rules introduced in 2025 have worsened congestion. “Bottlenecks at land crossings are often measured in days, not hours.” Policy risk is also increasing. “Recently, the US government also acted to


suspend certain flights from and to Mexico, leading to greater uncertainty in air trade between the two countries in 2026.” Despite near-term uncertainty, Platteau sees Latin America gaining


strategic importance. “Generally, Latin America will grow in importance and become one of the most attractive markets, with improving volumes and better revenue opportunities versus other regions.” “Our core strength is with our experienced staff, enabling us to deliver


optimised, cost-effective, and consistent service, combined with new directive technologies.


www.aircargoweek.com


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