AIR CARG O WEEK


WEEKLY NEWS


THE OVERLOOKED BATTLEGROUND IN THE BRICS CHALLENGE TO US DOMINANCE


BY Irina TSUKERMAN, President of Scarab Rising


GLOBAL power is no longer decided only on the seas or in boardrooms. It is being fought in the skies, where control over air freight determines who commands the most critical arteries of the world economy. The nation that dominates these aerial lifelines controls the speed, security, and direction of high-value trade, and, ultimately, the balance of global influence. Air freight moves about 35 percent of the world’s traded goods


by value, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This includes high-value products such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and time-sensitive electronics. The United States controls nearly 40 percent of global air cargo capacity through carriers like FedEx, UPS, and Atlas Air. American hubs such as Memphis International Airport and Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport are among the largest worldwide, handling millions of tons annually. Control over these channels translates directly into influence over the speed and security of supply chains. The BRICS alliance is building alternative trade and transportation


networks to reduce reliance on Western air cargo routes. The addition of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates introduces strategic Middle Eastern hubs. Dubai International Airport, the busiest globally for international passenger traffic, has expanded cargo capacity to over 2.5 million metric tonnes annually. King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah and Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport are developing facilities to handle rising volumes, focusing on energy equipment, electronics, and perishables, while bypassing Western- controlled airspace and infrastructure. Saudi Arabia denied being part of BRICS, signaling a calculated


stance amid the bloc’s expansion. Yet Riyadh is investing over US$7 billion to expand King Abdulaziz International Airport to handle up to 1.5 million tons annually. This is part of a broader Middle Eastern push to establish alternative logistics hubs. Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia deepens coordination with BRICS through economic cooperation, joint investments, and strategic dialogues to reshape trade architecture. Riyadh participates in BRICS-led forums on infrastructure development and financial integration, leveraging energy resources to secure favorable terms within emerging supply chains. This discreet alignment reflects its intent to diversify partnerships beyond traditional Western allies and become a pivotal logistics hub in the increasingly competitive global order. China’s dominant cargo airline, China Southern Airlines Cargo, operates over 300 freighters and handles more than 2.5 million tons


annually, making it Asia’s largest. This growth supports Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, integrating land and air corridors across Asia, Africa, and Europe. New China-Europe air freight routes via Central Asia have increased volumes by 30 percent annually over five years, reducing reliance on Western hubs like Frankfurt and Amsterdam.


Tariffs, trade fragmentation, and BRICS advantage Trump’s tariff policies have reshaped U.S. trade dynamics, accelerating fragmentation in supply chains.


In August 2025, Trump extended


suspension of planned tariff increases on Chinese imports, keeping the existing 30 percent rate and delaying hikes after negotiations on export controls, rare earths, and AI chip access. However, tariffs on Brazil and India rose up to 50 percent, and tariffs on EU and Japanese goods rose 15 percent. These tariffs raise U.S. household expenses by US$2,400 annually, increasing prices for clothing, produce, and automobiles, fueling frustration and cutting purchasing power. This tariff environment burdens American companies with higher


costs and uncertainty. Domestic manufacturers face falling foreign demand,


forcing investment cutbacks and slowdowns. Industries


relying on complex supply chains, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, face disruptions jeopardizing just-in-time production. These pressures reduce U.S. export competitiveness and make the country less attractive as a trade partner. Tensions accelerate realignment favoring BRICS. Companies and


countries avoid American markets and logistics to escape punitive costs. Brazil and India,


targeted by tariffs, deepen intra-BRICS


coordination, boosting trade agreements and infrastructure for cargo flows independent of Western hubs. China expands Belt and Road corridors connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe while excluding U.S.- dominated chains. This fragmentation weakens U.S.


influence and


strengthens BRICS’ autonomy. International retaliation includes EU counter-tariffs on American


whiskey, motorcycles, and agricultural products, while China imposes tariffs on U.S. soybeans and automobiles. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signed by 15 Asia-Pacific nations covering nearly 30 percent of global GDP and excluding the U.S., facilitates streamlined logistics, enabling shifts within the region. Institutionally, U.S. influence is eroding. The IMF retains about 16


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Lead or lose the skies To maintain leadership, the U.S. needs to invest in modernising cargo airports and fleets, upgrading digital logistics and customs infrastructure, and reengaging in multilateral trade agreements that preserve open skies and secure air corridors. Failure to act risks ceding strategic advantage in high-value air freight to BRICS and its partners. BRICS’ combined population of nearly 3.5 billion and approximately 30


percent share of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms give the bloc significant heft. The growth of alternative financial mechanisms and integrated resource strategies shows the shift underway. Control of the skies above, especially air freight networks, will decide which power shapes the economic order of the 21st century. Control over global air freight is the decisive front in the battle for


economic dominance. BRICS is building new air cargo networks and infrastructure challenging U.S. supremacy. The United States faces a stark choice: invest boldly in its air freight capabilities and forge stronger trade alliances or watch its influence slip away. The future of global power is being decided in the skies, and America cannot afford to lose this fight.


18 AUGUST 2025 ACW


percent voting share, but India, Brazil, and South Africa push reforms to increase their roles. BRICS’ New Development Bank, capitalised at US$50 billion, offers loans without IMF-style conditions, attracting countries under Western sanctions like Russia and Iran. China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with projects exceeding US$200 billion,


transport and logistics projects competing with Western initiatives. Business responses confirm the trend. A McKinsey survey found 44


percent of global supply chain executives plan to reduce dependence on China within five years. Apple and Dell expand production in Vietnam and Mexico. FedEx reported a 12 percent increase in air freight volume on Southeast Asia routes in 2022, reflecting shifting trade flows. Sovereign wealth funds, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, increase stakes in logistics and ports across Africa and Latin America, supporting air freight corridors aligned with BRICS interests. Governments are hedging strategically. The UAE maintains close ties


with Washington and Beijing, investing in air cargo logistics and expanding digital customs systems to accelerate trade. Brazil balances diplomacy, strengthening ties with both China and the U.S. while leveraging its role in agricultural exports dependent on air transport.


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