2004 AND 2020: BROADWAY, AMERICA, & CAROLINE, OR CHANGE


2004: George W. Bush is President, there is war in the Middle East, and tensions over economic instability are rampant. 2020: Donald J. Trump is President, there is war in the Middle East, and the state of the economy is one of the most divisive subjects in the U.S. While these years share a discordant energy, there is one thing we can be proud of from both: Caroline, or Change is on Broadway.


THE BUSINESS OF BROADWAY Although Broadway is an art form that brings joy and catharsis to millions of playgoers a year, it is also a business. For a show to survive on Broadway, especially a new musical, it must navigate its way through a unique business landscape and establish itself as a prime attraction among the other shows on the Great White Way. Caroline, or Change entered a very particular Broadway marketplace in 2004—and re-enters Broadway in a vastly different economic environment today.


The original production of Caroline, or Change opened on Broadway at the Eugene O’Neill Theatre on May 2, 2004, after beginning previews on April 13. At the time of its opening night, the highest-grossing show on Broadway was The Lion King, followed closely by Wicked and Mamma Mia! Only two of these, The Lion King and Wicked, grossed over $1 million dollars that week. As a whole, that week Broadway grossed $15,153,456 across 31 shows. At the American Airlines Theatre, Roundabout was presenting Twentieth Century by Ben Hecht and Charles MacArthur, where it played to over 90% capacity. At Studio 54, Roundabout was playing host to another classic and often underappreciated musical: Stephen Sondheim and John Weidman’s Assassins.


The business of Broadway in 2020, however, is somewhat more expansive. For the week ending January 5, 2020, Broadway grossed $43,095,641 (210.74% higher than the same week in 2004) across 36 shows. One show grossed over $3 million, three grossed over $2 million, and 18 shows grossed over $1 million. The highest-grossing shows (which all grossed over $2


A billboard for Mamma Mia in Times Square Photo: Alamy


million) were Hamilton, The Lion King, Wicked, and Moulin Rouge! Not only are The Lion King and Wicked still running, but they are also leading the pack.


THE CITY AND COUNTRY AT LARGE: 2004 As Caroline, or Change spread its wings on Broadway for the first time, the country’s economic fortunes were also beginning to take flight.


The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 had devastated New York City’s economy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the attack led to roughly 430,000 lost job months in New York City: equivalent to the loss of roughly 143,000 jobs a month for three months.


As 2004 approached, however, things were looking up. In the “arts, entertainment, and recreation” sector of Manhattan’s economy, under which Broadway falls, “jobs remained constant, while average wages rose 1.9 percent, to $52,231.”


While the economy was indeed growing in 2004, it wasn’t growing for everyone. Income inequality surged, as the richest were getting richer and the poor were staying poor. In an article for The New York Times, Paul Krugman wrote that, “In 2004 the real income of the richest 1 percent of Americans surged by almost 12.5 percent. Meanwhile, the average real income of the bottom 99 percent of the population rose only 1.5 percent. In other words, a relative handful of people received most of the benefits of growth. There are a couple of additional revelations in the 2004 data. One is that growth didn’t just bypass the poor and the lower middle class, it bypassed the upper middle class too. Even people at the 95th percentile of the income distribution—that is, people richer than 19 out of 20 Americans—gained only modestly. The big increases went only to people who were already in the economic stratosphere.”


THE CITY AND COUNTRY AT LARGE: 2020 From late 2019 into early 2020, the economy of both New York City and the U.S. has continued to grow. According to the city comptroller, the city’s economy grew by 2.4% in the latter half of 2019. While this growth was the slowest it had been in two years, it was still faster than the overall U.S. growth rate of 1.9%. This, though, is still a positive marker—despite a slower rate of growth, Gross Domestic Product growth is still higher than it was at this point one year ago.


12 ROUNDABOUT THEATRE COMPANY


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