State of the Nation
Uncertainty ahead for Scotland's businesses
Businesses need to protect their regulatory and economic interests as political turmoil continues to steal the limelight
There is so much scope for significant political turbulence ahead"
S
cotland’s business community faces a number of high-profile political risks centred around constitutional uncertainty.
This was the central message from the Glasgow Chamber of Commerce event held in June with communications specialists, Grayling. In the midst of the Conservative leadership race, delegates heard from Grayling’s Head of Public Affairs in Scotland, Ross Laird, on the likelihood of ongoing political turbulence and the risks and issues likely to affect businesses. Unsurprisingly, Brexit was at the top
of the list. The continued uncertainty has now been amplified with a real risk of a no-deal Brexit at the end of October. The new Prime Minister faces a wide range of political hurdles to get any form of deal through, however, MPs have also shown they are prepared to take a stand to prevent a no-deal Brexit, should they need to. Can the deadlock be broken when the Conservative Government is down to a threadbare majority and cannot assume authority over its own MPs? Only time will tell. If Brexit is the highest risk, what other political risks do businesses need to be aware of? One is the risk of a General Election. The next is not scheduled until 2022, but with the Conservative Party so volatile, there is no guarantee that they would win a vote of confidence in the House of Commons and could even
face a two-thirds majority vote for an election. That would put Labour in poll position to become the largest political party – but far short of a majority. Who would join Labour in a coalition? The Lib Dems will certainly be sceptical of any formal alliance following their disastrous engagement with the Conservatives, leaving the SNP as the most likely players, bringing with them their demands for a second independence referendum. How likely is a second independence
referendum? Much will depend on events in Westminster and beyond. Support for independence is on the rise but the SNP won’t want to go too early to the polls. Brexit and an unpopular Prime Minister would certainly all be
beneficial to their cause, but these have to countered by other political issues – the likelihood of the UK Government vetoing a vote, the forthcoming Alex Salmond court case and the squeeze on public finances to name but three. With so much scope for significant
political turbulence ahead, businesses need to ensure that regulatory and economic issues are not squeezed out as issues of concern and that the voice of business is heard in the right quarters. Whatever issues the coming months bring, certainty is not one of them.
Ross Laird, Head of Public Affairs in Scotland, Grayling, addresses the event delegates
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www.glasgowchamberofcommerce.com
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