Ky. Agricultural Receipts Hold Steady, But Net Cash Income Drops B


LOUISVILLE, KY.


uoyed by gains in the poultry and equine industries, Kentucky agri- cultural cash receipts are pre-


dicted to hold steady to 2017 levels, but 2018 net cash income will likely dip. Agricultural economists from the Uni- versity of Kentucky College of Agricul-


ture, Food and Environment are pro- jecting 2018 farm cash receipts to be $5.7 billion, equaling last year’s level. “Kentucky farm income has held up


expected to follow. The equine industry continues to


grow, and 2018 receipts should exceed $1 billion. The Keeneland September Yearling Sale was up more than 20 percent from 2017. “A relatively strong economy and


another Triple Crown winner likely supported both sales and stud fees for 2018, which I expect to be up by 10 percent,” said Kenny Burdine, UK agricultural econo- mist. “It is likely that this strength will continue into 2019.” A strong economy and exports


helped the cattle market remain relatively stable in 2018. Calf prices are roughly $8 more per hundredweight than they were in 2017. Burdine expects an increase in beef cattle numbers to result in lower prices in 2019. “Producers should look for sea-


sonal price increases during the spring, but expect prices by fall 2019 to be below this year’s lev- els,” Burdine said. Dairy production remains chal-


lenging for Kentucky producers and is projected to be down 15 percent on the year. Dairy cow numbers declined in 2018 as pro- ducers faced unfavorable margins and some producers lost contracts with Dean Foods. In 2018, milk prices declined more than $1.50 per hundredweight from 2017. Economists expect prices to im- prove slightly in 2019, but mar- gins will remain challenging.


In 2018, U.S. soybean and corn


Corn and soybean research plots at UK's Spindletop Farm. Photo by Matt Barton, UK agricultural communications


IRRIGATION COMPANY LIKE NO OTHER.


better than national trends over the past several years given our mix and di- versity of agriculture and above-aver- age grain crop yields,” said Will Snell, UK agricultural economist. “For 2019, we expect Kentucky agriculture cash receipts to hold steady with continued strength in the equine and poultry mar- kets offsetting anticipated losses for soybeans, tobacco and cattle. Trade de- velopments and weather will ultimately dictate the 2019 market.” UK agricultural economists estimate


ACT NOW TO GET EVEN GREATER VALUE FROM T-L!


SAVE $6.00 PER FOOT HARVEST SPECIAL


$7,800 or PER QUARTER MILE SYSTEM Contact T-L, your T-L dealer, or visit www.tlirr.com to learn more.


T-L ... LIKE NO OTHER. www.tlirr.com


151 Ea 89


1 East Hwy 6 & AB Road P.O. Box 1047


Hastings, Nebraska 68902-1047 USA


Phone: 1-800-330-4264 Fax: 1-800-330-4268 Phone: (402) 462-4128 Fax: (402) 462-4617 sales@tlirr.com www rr.c


sales@ rr.c www.tlirr.com


8• MidAmerica Farmer Grower / December 7, 2018 64


T-L’s hydrostatic drive design and continuous movement provide the superior water distribution, reliability, low maintenance and long life that you expect from an irrigation system.


For a limited time, T-L is offering a Harvest Special discount of $6.00 per foot or $7,800 on a quarter mile long system. Don’t wait! Get the most for your irrigation investment and let T-L and T-L dealers give you decades of dependability.


Kentucky’s net cash income to total around $1.8 billion, which is nearly 10 percent lower than last year due to higher production costs and a reduc- tion in government payments. “The prolonged period of low com-


modity prices coupled with higher ex- penses is resulting in cash flow and liquidity challenges. These could be made worse for some producers this year because of lower soybean yields and quality, resulting from a very wet harvest period,” said Jerry Pierce, pro- gram coordinator for the Kentucky Farm Business Management Program. “This is prompting producers to either cut into their equity and make it harder to get operating loans. Both manage- ment decisions reduce farm equity and weaken repayment ability.” Poultry will likely remain the state’s


top agricultural commodity, comprising 21 percent of projected 2018 sales. Equine, soybeans, cattle and corn are


acreage decreased by about 1 million acres each, but record yields continued to result in large crops. In Kentucky, record yields are expected to result in a 7 percent increase in soybean receipts in 2018, despite trade concerns. Do- mestic and international use of corn was up by 17 percent in 2018 and re- duced U.S. stocks. Corn prices in- creased 24 cents per bushel in 2018 from 2017. “The U.S. Department of Agriculture


forecasts that corn will be more prof- itable than soybeans in 2019 due to strong domestic demand and exports for corn,” said Todd Davis, UK agricul- tural economist. “USDA forecasts corn area to increase by 2.8 million acres in 2019. Soybeans are expected to have the largest quantity of stocks in history for the 2018-2019 marketing year, which will reduce prices and potentially shift 6.6 million acres out of soybeans in 2019.” Slumping demand and an extremely


poor growing season resulted in a sig- nificantly lower yielding burley crop. The value of Kentucky tobacco produc- tion may struggle to reach $300 million in 2018, which is $60 million less than the state average over the past 10 years. Dark tobacco may comprise nearly half of the value of the state’s to- bacco crop this marketing year com- pared to only averaging about 7 percent in the 1990s. E-cigarettes and vaping products, which contain virtually no U.S. tobacco content, continue to take market shares away from traditional to- bacco products. The tumbling burley demand and slowing growth in snuff sales will likely result in a reduction in contract volume for both burley and


CONTINUED ON PAGE 14


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24