FX US DOLLAR WATCH
out to the upside, EUR/CHF would decline, thus dampening any bullish momentum back to neutral. Each time the USD/CHF would break out to the downside, EUR/CHF would rally to its high and again neutralize any bearish momentum in USD/CHF. As a result, the USD/CHF remained neutral.
In the fourth quarter, though, we resumed the USD/CHF rally toward our 1.0440 January 2017 objective. As
we tested 1.0330 about 1% from the objective, EUR/CHF has declined toward the 1.0625 medium-term pivot point and dampened the bullish medium-term techs in USD/CHF. We continue to forecast the rally to 1.0440 through January 2017, but also continue to forecast the decline in EUR/CHF to 1.0235 in January 2017. Tis 4% decline in EUR/CHF will continue to constrain USD/CHF and produce significant medium-term divergences through March 2017.
So, since we continue to forecast
approximately another 10% decline in the EUR/USD, somethings got to give in the CHF. We are focused on a weekly close in EUR/CHF below 1.0625 to commence the forecast decline to 1.0235 and maintain our complex CHF outlook.
NOTE: In our big picture, the struggle of USD/CHF and resulting medium-term divergences [as the EUR/USD completes its seven-year cyclical decline at .9330] is also a strong indication of the waning long- term bull market in the Dollar that we now believe culminates into the middle of 2017.
GOLD USD/CHF
Te inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations that remain intact during this disjointed global environment. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold in December 2015. Te strong rally through the 1155 medium-term corrective
objective GOLD
for February 2016, as well as through 1311 very strong medium-term resistance in June 2016 again eroded the improved medium-term techs back in neutral/bearish and increased the medium-term divergences. We continue to forecast a subsequent decline to retest 1044 in January 2017 to complete the long-term decline. We continue to forecast a subsequent medium-term consolidation [1044
30 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2017
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