TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – NZD/USD
NZD/USD underwent a three-legged from .4901 in March 2009 (a 7 year low), eventually reaching .8840 in August 2011, a rise of 80% and the highest level since 1981. A near 38.2% retracement of the entire advance then occurred, reaching .7373 in November 2011, accompanied by MACD crossing below the pivotal zero line, ahead of a strong bounce to .8469 in February 2012. Tis had potential to mark the right shoulder to an almost 2 year head & shoulders top pattern, but a clean break of the .7126-.7373 neck-line failed to occur, leaving a higher low at .7461 in May 2012. A steady and sustained recovery followed, taking out the .8469 lower top to reach .8676 in April 2013, ahead of the latest
retreat which has lost the March 2013 higher low at .8164. A 3 year support line connecting lows at .6565 & .7461 is under attack, a clean break of which and next key support at .7813 will be an indication of a return towards the .7373-.7461 area over coming months, losing which will indicate the possibility of a quite sizeable retreat over the coming 6-12 months, possibly to attack and break the (March) 2011 low at .7126. To the upside, the risk now is that former key resistance at .8469 from February 2012 will come back into play on an initial recovery attempt, forming a lower top below the recent .8676 recovery high.
Steve Jarvis
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 07 June NZD/USD USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level .7885
1.2470 3.0940 30.635 .9650
1.1990 1.3965 1.6740
Major trend Up
Down Down Down Flat
Down Up
Flat
Major targets .8840 / .9477
1.1728 / 1.0791 2.9358 / 2.6548 27.540 / 27.080
1.1395 / 1.1036 1.4331 / 1.5456
Trend change level .7813
1.2818 3.1375 31.200
.9641 / 1.0717 1.2682 1.2221
1.5082 / 1.6966
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2013
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