Industry Forecast Continued from page 62


Why 2K Eleven? — an insider’s look at the upcoming year By Bob ‘hot rod’ Rohr


Y


ear 2011 — time to pull out my hydronically warmed crystal ball and predict the


next year. So here are my predictions, or guesstimates, for the hydronic and solar industry and market. Business- wise, work seems to be picking up around the country. My travels this year have taken me from Maine to Mississippi, from right to left coast and Alaska to Southern California. I have been exposed to an excellent cross-section of the market. I receive more daily newsletters that I can humanly read; I watch the home- builders’ statistics; and listen to the contractors I meet. So I feel this pre- diction is grounded in reality. At least this week’s reality. Hydronics is in a funk, or slump.


Even in the mountain resort areas, typically the stronghold for new installation radiant work, business is way off. Repair and replacement marches on, mainly on an “as need- ed” basis. I’m not hearing of as many high efficiency boiler upgrades just to leverage lower operating costs. The slow economy and low fuel costs are both factors, I suspect. When I do see new construction projects, in the high-end market, it looks like geothermal systems are the current rage. Homeowners and builders are attracted to this well- marketed concept. This is cutting into hydronics. It seems whenever the big name HVAC manufacturers have a message to drive to the consumers, their budgets dwarf that of the hydronic industries. The radiant manufacturers are


coming up with geo-compatible com- ponents. When you see the manufac- turers commit their resources to a sector of the market, it’s a good indi- cator that this technology is needed and wanted. Manufacturers generally don’t retool without research and market analysis. Everybody backs the wrong horse now and then; however, when you see a trend across the industry, pay attention. If I had one concern with geo —


Plumbing Engineer


and I do — it is electric heat! Remember 50% or more of our elec- tricity is coal fired. Natural gas fired, and in some areas diesel powered


generators provide the juice. Geo systems must be calculated and installed properly. If the loop fields are not sized correctly, or the ground becomes saturated the efficiency may/ will drop. I have witnessed a few under performing “scorched


Continued on page 66


Circle 30 on Reader Reply Form on page 85 January 2011/Page 65


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