SNIPPET ON GRAINS
Soybean prices this year started out above year ago levels, corn prices are about the same and wheat prices are below a year ago.
Soybean prices this year started out above year ago levels, corn prices are about the same and wheat prices are below a year ago. World corn, soybean and wheat production are at record high levels and demand is also at a record high. World corn, soybean and wheat stocks are at record highs.
South American weather is turning mostly favorable for crops. Brazil is seeing off-and-on showers that could slow harvest in the north, but their soybean crop is estimated at a new record high and the corn crop looks to bounce back from last year’s production. Argentina’s wet spring may have reduced planted acres, but weather now could help the crops that were planted. Both countries want to increase production over the coming years, but the key will be stable politics and currencies.
It is estimated that in 2017 U.S. farmers will shift wheat and corn acres to soybeans. For the first time ever, U.S. farmers may plant the same soybean acres (90.0 million) as corn. U.S. farmers are estimated to plant the lowest wheat acres in 107 years. Most expect the U.S. 2017/18 soybean carryout to increase. Corn carryout is likely to remain the same and wheat carryout could drop slightly. Normal world 2017 crops could drop U.S. 2017/18 corn, wheat and soybean exports. Recent China import taxes on U.S. DDG and ethanol exports could limit the upside in U.S. ethanol production, which is currently at a record pace. The Trump Administration’s plan to revise NAFTA and possibly develop a border tax could hurt U.S. agriculture exports.
Steve Freed E:
steve.freed@
admis.com T: 001 312 242 7089
18 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | January/February 2017
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