GEO-6 Regional Assessment for North America


Meaningful long-term adaptation will require shifts in institutional arrangements


and policies, approaches


that nurture the design, exploration, and adoption of unprecedented intervention. Effective transformational adaptation must include social and financial investment in the unfamiliar: new technologies, creative partnerships, different infrastructure, and innovative engagement processes (Porter et al. 2014; Adger et al. 2009; Nelson et al. 2008).


Given the sporadic pace and inadequate efforts to mitigate the causes of climate change, communities on all continents, in every city, and at all scales need to adapt to the impacts of climate change. While incremental adaptation may suffice for initial response–as it has worked for coping with climate variability in the past–the inevitable, continuing, and likely intensifying impacts of climate change require transformational adaptation: and sooner rather than later (Porter et al. 2014; Bierbaum et al. 2013; Kates et al. 2012; Vermeulen et al. 2012).


A 2012 exploration of the approach suggests that transformational adaptation is essential in at least three situations: when an adaptation intervention must be significantly scaled up, when the intervention is introduced to a new region or resource system, and when the intervention will transform places and shift locations (Kates et al. 2012). Two conditions in particular


moving towards a decrease in the carbon intensity of the energy system. However, implementation of these milestone international agreements will require stakeholder involvement complementary to actions outside of the agreements


by sub-national governments, businesses,


innovators and entrepreneurs (The White House 2015; Trudeau 2015).


Although uncertainty exists in any market forecast, business as usual will likely result in increased development of unconventional fossil fuel sources such as those recovered by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of underlying rock (US EIA 2016g). Past fossil fuel usage has contributed significantly to the historic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC 2011). North America, with abundant renewable energy resources, a culture of innovation, strong financial institutions and a highly skilled workforce is in an excellent position to lead the transition to a sustainable energy system (IRENA 2015). The choice of energy pathways is significant and will affect future global climate, human health and sustainability.


call for transformational


adaptation to climate change: severe vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe impacts that overwhelm even robust human systems.


2.9. The energy transition


2.9.1 Introduction North


America is at a crossroads where policies,


infrastructures, and innovation can accelerate transitioning to a cleaner, low carbon energy system. At the international level, the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goal 7 send a strong signal that the global economy is


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The energy sector in North America is transitioning, and shifting patterns of supply and demand are affecting air, land, and water resources. Technological developments have reduced the costs and increased the efficiency of solar, wind and other renewable energy sources, resulting in wider use (IEA 2015). Other technological advances have increased the development of unconventional fossil fuels. Decreasing costs, volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices, levelling of consumer demand, shifting policy priorities and the desire for consumer choice are all driving these changes. Data show that shifts in the North American energy landscape are affecting emission pathways, patterns and locations of land development, and water use associated with energy production and use–all with consequences for ecosystems and human health. This section examines the transformation in primary and secondary energy, along with changing patterns in energy demand.


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