FEATURE REFERENDUM REFLECTIONS


Referendum ref lections T


HE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE referendum campaign produced what one commentator described as a ‘festival of democracy’. Discussion and debate


over the issues at stake could be heard in cafes, pubs and community halls around the country. A staggering 84.6 per cent turned out to vote on the question of whether Scotland should be an independent country – Scotland’s highest ever electoral turnout. By a margin of 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent, they voted ‘No’. Academics engaged in the ESRC Future of the


UK and Scotland programme had an invaluable opportunity to observe and examine the process as it unfolded, and to participate directly by helping to ensure that political, civic and public debates were informed by academic research. We offer here some preliminary observations on the referendum and its aftermath.


A fair and decisive outcome? – Robert Lineira The Edinburgh Agreement set out that the referendum should deliver ‘a fair test and a decisive expression’ of the views of people in Scotland. The available evidence indicates that the


process and the campaign were generally perceived to be fair. In our June survey, 50 per cent of voters agreed with the proposition that both sides of the referendum debate had a fair chance to present their point of view, whereas only 19 per cent disagreed. Although at time of writing


Although the margin of victory produced a clear No outcome, the meaning of the No vote is far from clear


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As the dust settles after the momentous referendum on Scotland’s independence, academics involved with the ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland programme evaluate what the referendum result means for Scotland and the rest of the UK


we do not yet have post-referendum survey data that would allow us to examine perceptions of fairness from the perspective of winners and losers, the general view suggests that the fairness criteria has been met. Was the referendum decisive? Although the margin of victory produced a clear No outcome, the meaning of the No vote is far from clear. The pro-Union parties committed to increasing the powers of the Scottish Parliament in the event of a No vote, but did not agree on which powers would be devolved. Consequently, the referendum may have produced a decisive expression on the question of independence, but not on the constitutional status of Scotland within the Union. These are not wholly separate issues. A failure to deliver appropriate new powers could reopen the independence issue. Lord Ashcroft’s post- referendum poll suggested that 61 per cent of Yes


A failure to deliver appropriate


new powers could reopen the independence issue


voters and 38 per cent of No voters believed the referendum settled the question of independence only for the next five to ten years. Only one in four No voters believed it settled the question forever. The referendum may have been fair, but its decisiveness should not be overstated. Robert Lineira as a post-doctoral fellow in the


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ESRC Centre on Constitutional Change Lesson learned: Trust 16-year olds and schools with politics – Jan Eichorn


One of the unique features of the Scottish


independence referendum was the extension of the franchise to include 16 and 17 year olds. This gave us the opportunity to collect representative data on the political attitudes of under 18s, bringing out two core conclusions. First, young people are interested in and


engaged with politics. We need to stop assuming that low voting turnout is associated with political apathy. Their political interest levels were equivalent to those of adults and their engagement with a variety of information sources was impressive. However, many did not find that traditional political institutions provided an avenue for the expression of their political interests. These feelings applied in particular to political parties, which is why many young people are involved in other forms of participation.


16 SOCIETY NOW AUTUMN 2014


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