TECHNICAL REPOR FXT MAJOR CROSS-RATES – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/SEK
EUR/SEK peaked at 11.7842 in March 2009, a new all-time traded high. A prolonged decline followed, reaching 8.7013 & 8.1773 lows in February 2011 & August 2012, interrupted by a bounce which left a lower top at 9.3661 in September 2011. A multi- month base pattern at 8.1773 / 8.2561 was completed in June 2013 by the break above 8.7937, with gains to 8.8989 & 9.0980 having followed, interrupted by a higher low at 8.5194. With a dead-cross of the 60 & 120 month moving averages having recently occurred and MACD having corrected to test the
pivotal zero line, EUR/SEK is now at a key juncture. We will need to see the 9.0980-9.1691 resistance area cleared to improve the medium-term outlook, in which case a return towards 9.3661 and possibly the 9.5547-9.6536 area may shape up. But failure to clear 9.0980-9.1691 ahead of a reversal under 8.7013 and then 8.5194 would raise fears of a possible resumption of the major underlying downtrend, targeted next towards the (2000) all-time traded low at 8.0464, possibly accelerating on a clean break in the direction of 7.25-7.50.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 24 March EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
Current level .8350
169.00 141.10 1.22
8.3510 8.8690
Major trend Flat Up Up
Flat Up
Flat
Major targets
184.04 / 192.70 150.51 / 152.07
8.7001 / 9.0426
Trend change level .8069 / .8812 154.76 131.16
1.2003 / 1.2647 8.0129
8.5194 / 9.1691
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2014 81
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