7


known as triangulation, has been going on a lot longer than the rise of UKIP. Indeed, Thatcher once remarked, on the eve of Tony Blair’s sweep into power, that she had won because “look at what they had to become to beat us”.


As can be seen in the results of the


study by politicalcompass.org this process of triangulation is now quite far advanced.


All three parties now stand far to the


right of the collective will of the Scottish people and none of them can move back to capture the Scottish voters without losing those critical swing voters in the south. (Fig 3)


Now, I have noted previously that I Figure 2


change hands during a UK General Election. Whoever wins them, wins the election.


Imagine the situation in the


Conservative and Lib Dem HQ’s when planning conferences and policies in the run up to an election. They’re looking to please the voters who live in constituencies which don’t currently vote for them but might if things change just a little in their favour.


By favouring these “Swing Seats” they


can maximise their chances of gaining power in government.


Imagine, therefore, the Tories and Lib


Dems looking at the map of Scotland and seeing the vast swathe of Labour Red across the country.


They know they can’t win Scotland. Ultimately, why even bother trying? It’d


just be a waste of limited resources. They are forced by the situation to be incapable of making policy for Scotland. They cannot care about the people of Scotland.


Somerset, however,


contains nine of the two hundred seats in the UK most likely to change hands next year despite having a population only a fifth that of Scotland.


There is worse to


come though. Take yourself across the road to Labour HQ and their strategy meeting.


They are looking at the


same map, the same swing seats and the same swathe of Labour Red in the north. They see this and come to the conclusion that they


cannot lose Scotland. Again, making policy here to suit people who will probably vote for them anyway is a waste of time and effort. They cannot care about the people of Scotland either.


With that rot now set in time allows it to


progress. We can see in the recent news that the far right in England is rising rapidly. Parties such as UKIP are now regularly coming second in by-elections (despite having never even retained their deposit in Scotland) and are expected to do well in the upcoming EU elections.


Consequently, the Conservatives are


tacking rightwards in order to head them off.


Under FPTP, the worst thing that can


happen to your party is that a third party steal your voters so that the opposition ends up winning the seat.


With the right moving rightwards,


Labour itself can shuffle to the right to pick up any moderate Conservatives who are disaffected by their party’s now too- extreme views. Remember that they only need to win a few such voters in a few key swing seats in order to win Government.


And of the left in


England who see Labour as now too- extreme? Well, there isn’t another party there for them to flee to at the moment so all they can do is vote Labour (or tactically vote Lib Dem or UKIP) in order to “keep the Tories out”.


Figure 2 This process,


personally am not affiliated with any particular party (Aye Magazine, Issue 08) so the following should be taken as an objective outsider’s stance but I think here lies the source of the animosity amongst some Labour politicians towards SNP members.


Labour finds itself in a great conundrum


as Scotland, unlike the rest of the UK, now has a major political player on the left which can attract Scottish voters. Labour feels that it must hold onto the privileged and secure position it holds in Scotland but it cannot angle politically to recapture them without losing the moderate conservatives in the south.


Ultimately, it looks at the map again.


Scotland doesn’t matter. The swing seats do. If this is allowed to continue, soon Labour will not be able to win both Scotland and the UK. The tension must be unbearable for them. It sadly shows.


The key facts are laid out. A democratic


system prone to hinging on just a few seats plus a political strategy optimised to maneuvering in the narrowest of gaps between those seats leads to the inescapable conclusion for the people of Scotland.


Westminster can no longer afford to


care about Scotland. Change has been mooted at times but,


as we saw with the recent Alternative Vote referendum and the proposals for democracy in the House of Lords Westminster has found itself incapable of even the most modest of reforms.


If change is to come, I no longer believe


that it will come from within. The solution must be to accept the divergent politics between Scotland and the rest of the UK and to accept that one system of governance no longer suits the democratic will of both sides of the border.


If only there was a way for the people of Scotland to make this happen...


Fig 1 and 2: Wingsoverscotland.com Fig 3: Politicalcompass.org


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