Poll puts YES ahead by 1


Aye A A


NEWPanelbase poll puts support for Yes a point ahead of No – at 44 per cent to 43 per


The poll, commissioned by the


Scottish National Party, and conducted by Panelbase sampled between August 23-28, among 1,043 people aged 18 and over in Scotland.


This is the first poll to indicate Yes


ahead since the referendum question was finalised last year.


Support for a Yes vote has increased


by 7 points since the last Panelbase poll in July (for the Sunday Times), as undecided voters appear to be opting for Yes. Support for No has fallen by 3 points.


The detailed breakdown shows that


24 per cent of people who voted Labour in the Scottish Parliament constituency vote in 2011 intend to vote Yes. And among women aged 35-54, Yes leads No by 45 per cent to 41 per cent.


The poll shows that 93 per cent of Yes


supporters are very likely to vote in the referendum, compared to 88 per cent of No supporters.


The poll asks two key questions


which further illustrate the strength and potential of the Yes vote.


In response to whether people trust


the Scottish Government or the UK Government to take decisions for Scotland, 60 per cent trust Holyrood compared to just 16 per cent who trust Westminster – a lead for the Scottish Government of nearly four-to-one.


This far greater trust in Holyrood over


Westminster is reflected in every single demographic of gender, age and social class.


Among people who backed Labour in


the 2011 Scottish Parliament constituency vote, 44 per cent trust the Scottish Government compared to 20 per cent who trust the UK Government, and among Lib Dem voters the figures are 41 per cent to 28 per cent in favour of Holyrood.


The poll asked whether people agree


or disagree with the statement that Scotland could be a successful independent country – finding that 52 per cent agree, compared to just 37 per cent who disagree.


4 The detailed breakdown shows


that these same figures of 52 per cent to 37 per cent apply to


cent, with Don’t Know at 13 per cent – with just over a year to go until next September's vote.


At a Glance The Panelbase poll asked:


 “There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?” (Change from July 2013 Panelbase/Sunday Times poll in brackets):


Yes: No:


44% (+7) 43% (-3)


Don't Know: 13% (-4)


 “Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland: the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government?”


Scottish Govt: Don't Know: 60%


Westminster Govt: 16% Neither:


19% 5%


 “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: 'Scotland could be a successful independent country'.”


Yes, I agree:


No, I disagree: Don't Know:


52% 37% 11%


S someone with a bit of a passion for live music, one of the highlights of my year is


Perth’s annual Southern Fried Festival – a superb celebration of American roots music over the course of what, for me, is now a lost weekend every July.


I love it! But there was one incident this


year which caused me some consternation.


The occasion was a show at Perth


Concert Hall where Darrell Scott was opening for Patty Griffin. I arrived a bit late and, preoccupied with finding a seat and greeting friends, I paid no heed to the stage and so it wasn’t until the lights came up that I noticed the large flag draped over the grand piano. More precisely, two flags, as it was a banner combining America’s “Stars ‘n’ Stripes” and the British union flag.


To say that I was irked would be an


understatement. In fact, I was quite taken aback by the strength of my reaction. I muttered something unprintable, but which is commonly abbreviated to “WTF”.


I am not someone who is given to


powerful emotional responses. I tend to be, if anything, overly analytical. So I was rather perplexed by what was, for me, an uncommonly visceral reaction. Throughout the first half of the show I was constantly distracted by this flag and a nagging annoyance that was all the more irritating for being as unfamiliar as it was inexplicable.


And it wasn’t only me. During the


interval, the flag was the topic of every conversation I was part of or overheard. The tenor of these exchanges being along the lines of, “Great show! But what’s with that flag?”


I spoke briefly with the manager of the


women aged 35-54, compared to 44 per cent agreeing and 43 per cent disagreeing for all women.


Among people who voted Labour in


the 2011 Scottish Parliament constituency vote, 34 per cent agree that Scotland could be a successful independent country, compared to 51 per cent who disagree.


When people were asked if they


would be more or less likely to vote for independence if there were a Conservative led government or a Conservative/LibDem coalition at Westminster 50% were likely to vote Yes to independence (41% very likely, 9% quite likely). A total of 41% would vote No with 8% who don’t know.


A Labour led government at


Westminster would also make a ‘Yes’ vote more likely with 47% likely and 42% unlikely to vote for an independent Scotland.


venue and one of the people involved in organising the festival, simply pointing out that some people might consider the flag inappropriate. The former listened to what I had to say and assured me that he would look into it. The latter dismissed my observations saying that the flag(s) were “non-political”. A remark of such magnificent silliness that he had walked away before I had overcome my astonishment sufficiently to point out to him that a national flag is nothing else but a political statement. All that changes is the nature of the statement as determined by the context.


Evidently, I was not the only one to


make representations about the banner as it had been removed when the show restarted. I don’t for one minute imagine this was done simply on my account. I enjoyed the rest of the performance. But I was left wondering about why the display of the union flag in this context caused such aggravation to me and others. I have been wondering about it ever since.


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