AFTER THE SPRING


change will follow. There is now an appreciation that this policy has failed.” EU Commissioner Stephan Fule admitted as


much after the ousting of Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, when he said: “The Euro- Mediterranean partnership was mainly focused on economic reforms, and was unable to bring about the necessary political and institutional reforms.” What the Arab Spring has shown is that a


grassroots uprising from the people themselves is much more powerful than any policies from abroad. Political theory, argues Dr El-Affendi, has consistently underestimated the creativity and initiative of suppressed people. “They did not believe the people capable of developing and maintaining the solidarity needed to confront and defeat the formidable repressive machinery of an externally supported modern state,” he says. The Arab Spring proves otherwise. “While there has been a widespread depiction of the Arab Spring in terms of an ‘awakening’ of the people, it would probably be more accurate to speak of how both Arab and western leaders have been abruptly awakened themselves by those who were awake all along, maintaining a vigilance for the right moment to seize,” says Professor Rooney. But although the impact of the mass demonstrations was powerful, have they led to genuine reform? Morocco, the first Arab nation to hold an election since the Arab Spring, has approved a new constitution granting new rights to women and minorities. Algeria is in the process of re-writing the constitution and implementing reform, while King Abdullah II of Jordan has announced large subsidy packages. Other countries have talked of reform but so far with little action; some regimes – in particular Syria, Bahrain and Yemen – have resorted to violent crackdowns; and Libya is still mired in a civil war.


12 SOCIETY NOW SUMMER 2011


“The vulnerability to mass protests is clear, but much less so is their ability to bring about peaceful and wholesale reform without collapsing under the weight of such an ambitious undertaking,” says Professor Ehteshami. “It is hard to see how ruling establishments can introduce meaningful reforms without exposing their own vulnerabilities.” All the same, the balance between state and


society has shifted dramatically, he argues. “As Syria’s President Assad has found, the cascading pressures for reform cannot be reversed or contained without the regime thoroughly delegitimising itself. The prospect of a peaceful and stable Middle East is upon us, and a true beginning can only be realised once governments in this region are truly open, representative, transparent and abiding by the rule of law.” n


Arild Foss is ESRC Senior Copy Editor i


Global Uncertainties Programme Web www.globaluncertainties.org.uk


Radical distrust: a cultural analysis of the emotional, psychological and linguistic formations of religious and political extremism Contact Professor Caroline Rooney Email c.r.rooney@kent.ac.uk Web www.globaluncertainties.org.uk/globaluncertainties/ research/Radical_distrust.aspx


Narratives of insecurity, democratisation and the justification of (mass) violence Contact Dr Abdelwahab El-Affendi Email a.el-affendi@westminster.ac.uk Web www.globaluncertainties.org.uk/globaluncertainties/ research/Narratives.aspx


Centre for the Advanced Study of the Arab World Contact Professor Anoush Ehteshami Email a.ehteshami@durham.ac.uk Web www.casaw.ac.uk


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