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Crime Of The Century - A Chilling Look At Crime Statistics In The UK Public perceptions and trust in crime statistics


An important aspect of the BCS is the ability to ask respondents questions on crime-related topics as well as about their direct experience of crime. The 2009/10 BCS continues to show that a large proportion of people (66%) believe crime has risen across the country as a whole in the last few years. There has been a large majority of respondents thinking crime has risen at a national level since the questions were first included in 1996 and this has been consistent throughout the period in which BCS crime has fallen. Some commentators have gone so far as to suggest this demonstrates the public don’t believe the official crime statistics.


However, when asked about their local area, much lower proportions of people think crime has risen (though as with the national picture relatively small proportions think crime has fallen). The BCS also shows that around half of the public believe that they live in a lower than average crime area (51%) with 39 per cent thinking they live in an area with an average level of crime and just ten per cent in a high crime area. This suggests that the public have a more realistic view of crime in their local area.


Surveys have shown public trust in crime statistics and other official statistics is low and that many people believe there to be political interference in the production of statistics (Bailey et al, 2010). However, in their recent review the UK Statistics Authority commented that they had “not seen any evidence of political interference in the production of the aggregate National Statistics on crime and we are satisfied that the Home Office statisticians responsible for this work are fully committed to maintaining that integrity”. As the Authority noted “distrust often arises from the way the statistics are used and quoted after they have been released.”


Further, in the survey commissioned by the Authority, cited above levels of trust in crime statistics were on a par with other National Statistics such as unemployment and inflation. The recommendations of the UK Statistics Authority review are being given careful consideration. It is important that we further develop our statistical reporting to meet the needs of users, including working with the police to assist them with respect to their local reporting. In doing this, we will also heavily rely on the integrity and hard work of those who collect information in the field, both BCS interviewers and police staff.


Each source has different strengths and weaknesses but together they provide a more comprehensive picture of crime than could be obtained from either series alone. In a recently published report examining barriers to trust in crime statistics, the UK Statistics Authority stated that “the crime figures for England and Wales, for which the Home Office is responsible, have been subject to many improvements over the years and, in terms of technical quality, we believe they compare well with corresponding statistics for other countries” (UK Statistics Authority, 2010).


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