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Spike in School Bus Production a Sign of Good Things to Come? By Ryan Gray


Ding dong, the witch is dead? Perhaps.


Or, might she just be napping? Te antagonist in this story is the


economy, a familiar foe that has knocked down, but not out, the school bus mar- ket since the “Great Recession” took a foothold more than three years ago. Te results of the annual School Transporta- tion News survey of the seven school bus manufacturers produced a welcome de- parture, if only fleeting, from the nega- tive news over the past couple of years of school bus route cuts at local school districts and downsized purchasing plans that too frequently resulted in layoffs at school bus manufacturing facilities. Amid commentary from across the


nation that the economy is rebounding, albeit extremely slowly, school bus manu- facturers reported some more promising news late last year as overall output grew by 9 percent. While still the second low- est tally over the past decade, the 40,670 school bus bodies manufactured during the 2009-2010 production year also rep- resent the first time since 2005-2006 that


volume in the marketplace increased and that volume exceeded the 40,000 thresh- old. An increase of nearly 4,000 additional school buses far from signifies that indus- try worries are over, but it does provide some much needed optimism heading into the new year. Surely, many manufac- turers and pupil transporters alike are still wary of what the current year will bring, especially considering the drying up of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds that gave school bus replacements a shot in the arm over the past two years. Full attention is returning to the ability of school district budgets to stop the bleed- ing of budgetary dollars, or at least to at- tempt to keep budgets at the same levels as the last couple of years. Tose school districts in the position to grow their bud- gets are few and far between. Tis means a continuing dilemma of where to find money for purchasing new school buses. Te economy has also hurt other sec-


tors outside of schools that manufactur- ers rely upon. As one school bus OEM rep- resentative said, “2011 looks to be another


School Transportation News Annual School Bus Manufacturing Data


School Year MFSAB 2009-2010


2008-2009 2007-2008 2006-2007 2005-2006 2004-2005 2003-2004 2002-2003 2001-2002 2000-2001


Van. Conv.


1,375 (est.) 1,160 (est.) 3,000 (est.) 3,000 (est.) 3,000 (est.) 2,868 1,785 32


AAV


Type A-1 Type A-2 4,111


40


30 25


50


460 421 74


3,712 2,070 1,699 3,213 5,552 2,251 3,063 5,477 3,688


4,699 4,587 3,294 4,614 5,396 3,870 4,912 5,389 3,536 5,935


Type A Type B Type C Type D 8,810 8,299 5,364 6,313 8,609 9,422 7,163 8,452 9,013 9,623


Total


400 25,791 5,669 250 23,737 4,689 250 26,253 6,676 692 26,153 6,265 925 30,641 7,740 27,723 8,570 26,585 7,716 24,044 8,239


78


150 24,518 8,682 90


25,150 9,795


Totals* 40,670


36,975 38,543 39,688 47,915 45,715 41,464 40,813 42,363 44,658


*Total count does not include MFSAB buses, AAV or “white” buses typically used for commercial applications. Source: School Transportation News


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tough year. State budgets are down across the board, and the child care market con- tinues to suffer with high unemployment.” Multi-function school activity buses, or


MFSABs, are essentially school buses built to federally-mandated specifications minus items such as stop arms and flashing loading and unloading lights. Across the board, Type A manufacturers have said that estimates of churning out more than 3,000 MFSABs units each year were unrealistic at best. Te market has yet to fully embrace MFSABs, one reason being the lack of money at the aforementioned child care agencies that were originally thought to be potential ear- ly-adopters of the school buses. Head Start has also yet to specify many of theses buses, instead opting for actual Type As or Type Cs, again, when there has been money. Still, the industry can hang its hat on the


fact that all school bus segments saw a spike in factory output. At 8,810 units, the Type A classification saw the highest number of buses produced since, again, 2005-2006. Still, Type As have a ways to go before returning to production levels at the turn of the cen-


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