Will grid parity change everything for the solar industry?
Will grid parity change everything for the solar industry?
growth in the Spanish market in 2009. cost of electricity and
However, megawatt installations will the availability of low-
“Following a dip in growth in 2009,
rebound in 2010 with growth of 42.5 cost solar systems in
percent, followed by a 73.6 percent rise in the nation. However, photovoltaic installations measured
2012 and a 68.6 percent increase in 2013. Germany is not set
Chart 1 presents iSuppli’s forecast of to achieve grid parity
in terms of megawatts are expected to
worldwide photovoltaic system installations until 2018, according to
rise at a Compound Annual Growth
in terms of megawatts. iSuppli’s definition.
California may
Rate (CAGR) of 72.4. ”
Waiting for parity already have achieved
Different countries are expected to attain grid parity if consumers
grid parity at different times, due to vary- are paying the premium of 35 cents per
like any other market, with early adopters
ing factors including sun exposure and the kilowatt hour. However this kind of grid
and late adopters. The market is at an early
cost of utility-provided electricity. parity addresses only a small fraction of the
stage in terms of penetration. Penetration
“The country that is probably closest to state’s consumers. Grid parity addressing
of solar systems will progress like any other
reaching this standard is Italy,” Wicht said. the majority of private household and
market.”
“Italy has high electricity rates, and low reaching electricity prices of 22 cents per
system prices. It also has a high exposure to kilowatt hour are likely to be achieved in
solar radiation. four to five years.
But even in this nation, the elapsed However, these events are not likely to
time to the cash break-even point is now spur a major rise in solar installations.
Jonathan Cassell is the editorial director
about 14 years. Furthermore, debt for a “The definition of Grid parity is
for iSuppli Corp., El Segundo, Calif. He
system installed now will reach 35 percent imprecise, making it easy to call it the
holds a BA in English from the Univer-
of the net system price.” holy grail for solar,” Wicht added. “As
sity of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, and an
iSuppli doesn’t expect the nation’s solar solar system prices will continue drop
industry to achieve grid parity until 2012. and public incentives will allow to obtain
MS in journalism from Northwestern
The next closest nation to reaching Return on investment of 5 to 10 percent
University, Evanston, Ill.
grid parity is Germany due to the high over 20 years, Solar Penetration will rise
Innovation
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Global Solar Technology – May/June 2009 – 27
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