The heat is on


Decarbonisation of heating is vital to meet the UK’s target of 80% emissions reduction by 2050. Jeff Douglas explores the options.


to the atmosphere annually, which is 20% of total national emissions and around 3.5 tonnes for every house.


UK household space and water heating contributes to around 100 million tonnes of CO2


Given this, the decarbonisation of heat is vital to meet the nation’s overall target of an 80% emissions reduction by 2050. This sounds tough, but looking across the whole energy system, studies indicate it is more cost effective to decarbonise buildings than apply deeper cuts in sectors such as transport and industry.


From a technical perspective, the gas system is valuable; it can store vast amounts of energy and deliver the extreme 300GW peaks of heat demand.


The question is how to move from a system that gives good service, but burns natural gas, to one that is also secure, affordable and also emits near-zero emissions while providing the warmth we crave.


In addition to building new sustainable homes, around 26 million existing homes will require a retro-fitted low carbon heating system, To accomplish this between 2020 and 2050, some 20,000 home would have to be converted every week.


The starting point of any systematic design process for heat is not a technical specification but a fuller understanding of human requirements. The question is not so much ‘how much energy do you use’ but more ‘what is it you are seeking to achieve when you are using energy’?


This may seem a simple question, until you factor in the many different buildings types with many different occupants, with many differing requirements. However, this insight is critical; proposals based on technical considerations and general assumptions alone will ultimately find little favour in the market. In addition to insight, we also need to predict and adapt to future needs. Take cooling; few people would buy a car without air-conditioning, but in the home it appears to be less important. However, temperatures look likely to rise over time, so we can expect to see a greater need to integrate cooling into system designs for the built environment.


Low carbon solutions


When considering solutions, there is obviously a role for improvements that reduce the energy demand of in buildings, which haven’t been designed with energy efficiency in mind, at least in the UK.


Many of the easier and more cost effective measures such as cavity wall insulation have been completed, but there are important, albeit currently costly additional refurbishment measures, including the treatment of homes with solid walls. To deliver decarbonised heat, networked heating is a first option, which would use heat networks supplied by a low carbon source, or from fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A second option, individual electric heating, includes heat pumps using a decarbonised electricity supply.


The third option, hybrid electric/gas heating, uses heat pumps combined with small


amounts of gas to meet peak demands. And the fourth, networked gas, re-purposes the existing gas grid for low carbon gas use. When evaluating options, it is important to look across the whole energy system. Whilst biogas can be injected into the gas system to reduce the carbon content, this would ultimately have to entirely displace natural gas to deliver the required decarbonisation. Biomass is a valued and finite resource for which there will be increasing international competition, and could be especially beneficial for hydrogen production if coupled with CCS. And similarly, hydrogen could displace natural gas and be produced either by reformation of methane with a carbon capture and storage system, or by large-scale electrolysis using power from a decarbonised grid. But, although many key low-carbon components are mature, there is no clear pathway for the mass market to adopt them. The cost of the carbon content of natural gas is not added to energy bills, so high carbon options are always cheaper. Low carbon solutions are also relatively complex, with high upfront costs and uncertain benefits for consumers and providers.


Also, as we move from the many exploratory and valuable low carbon energy projects around the country, we should consider the development of coherent pathways that meet the 2050 goals. These should take account of local characteristics including existing housing stock, geographical layout, local power and gas networks, energy resources and population preferences. The pathways should also be considered alongside the national energy system to create a local representation of demand and supply for a specified area. Local authorities aren’t responsible to create such a plan, but some are already directing resources to the task of energy master planning. In support of this, the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) and the Energy Systems Catapult are working together to help lay the foundations for the transition of heat through the ETI’s Smart Systems and Heat Programme.


Local Area Transition Pathways


EnergyPath Networks Planning Tool


National View


Local View


Energy Infrastructure Design Considerations


11


Decision Module


Community Benefits


Decision Factors


Energy Technologies Institute


A new software planning tool and design process, EnergyPath Networks, has been developed, which maps the impact of future growth on local energy systems and develops pathways for a cost effective, local, low carbon energy transition.


These pathways reflect the unique priorities of individual local authorities and enable collaborative work with electricity, gas and heat network operators to help decide and prioritise energy options are most appropriate for a local area. But it’s not just about understanding the needs of people and developing the technology to support them. Many potential future market frameworks exist, some placing more emphasis on centrally planned solutions, some providing community buy-in, whilst others are more market driven.


These come with a change from the current energy demand-led system to one with much stronger interaction between demand and supply. Therefore, any future, efficient, integrated and service-focused energy system cannot function without a ‘smart’ operating environment, enabling control and supporting the introduction of new consumer products and business models.


Meeting the heat transition objective will involve around 25 years of intense, sustained activity including almost every household, whilst engaging many thousands of trained personnel. If this transition is to happen there must be another period of intense activity in the years to the early 2020s.


During this time there is a real need to test and demonstrate the approaches at sufficient scale to inform the decisions that ultimately affect over 26 million homes. This ‘enabling’ phase will provide continuous learning and help inform the policy frameworks that can most cost-effectively support the transformation of the nation’s home heating and minimise costs for consumers over the coming decades.


Jeff Douglas is Strategy Manager of the Energy Systems Catapult.


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