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FEATURE NEXT-GENERATION PON
in a lab but are unlikely to be seen in the field, doesn’t really help the market.’ Conger continued: ‘NGPON2 is a
technology where most of the vendors are saying they are going to put their volume behind it. Now that may be largely business and backhaul services in the initial days, with residential to follow at a later point, that is really what most operators are planning.’ Tese comments were echoed by Pesovic
from Alcatel-Lucent: ‘Tis technology is not standardised, this is more of a lab trial or a prototype. We are looking to deploy a standardised technology that can be deployed as soon as possible to answer the operator’s needs, but we also have Bell Labs, which is our research organisation, and they are constantly busy with new technologies. ’ Conger explained that NGPON2 looks as if
it will be able to cover all the use cases that operators currently see, at least within the PON market. ‘Tere is definitely a place for the 100-gigabit technology and 40 gigabit and other things, but they can be deployed over point-to-point or other scenarios. Tey don’t need a point-to-multipoint system to deliver
those services. Today it’s more about getting the volume to reduce costs.’ Conger added: ‘We have still got a long way
to go with NGPON2. It is the cost that is ultimately going to drive adoption versus, say, point-to-point. If you build an ONT [optical network terminal] and it is $5000, then you are just not going to get many people to adopt it, no matter what the rate is. Tey can always go for a point-to-point technology if they want to do that, and do it more effectively. ‘Right now, we need a 10-gig PON
technology in a really bad way and a lot of operators are saying “well, do I make a jump to [10G] EPON, at least that exists today?” but I think now we have addressed those concerns. NGPON2 is close enough; we are at the point now that we can demonstrate some of the technology; and I think that there is more assurance that it is not going to go the way of XGPON1. So that is what we need in the market now: a successful NGPON2.’ Conger highlighted that GPON has seen
around a 10-year lifespan, and he expects that NGPON2 will last a similar amount of time before it is surpassed by new technology.
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However, no one would be surprised if the demand for data rates is driven even higher than they currently are. Smart phones for instance were developed in the late 1990s, but it was only in 2007 when the iPhone was released that there was a proliferation of smart devices that consumed large amounts of data. With operators around the world launching
gigabit services (see feature p14), it will not be long before the European and other markets follow suit. In the opinion of Kurt Raaflaub, global product marketing, carrier networks division, Adtran, these gigabit services will drive the development of new applications that inevitably will consume more bandwidth than those that came before. Raaflaub said: ‘We have to recognise with
the proliferation of gigabit services mainly in the US right now, that is going to fuel application innovation. Tere are a lot of people with great ideas on how you can cram an application into a gigabit pipe. Tat is going to lead to applications that you or I have not even heard of yet, but 18 months from now someone will come up with something.’l
4-5th February 2015, Southern Sun Cullinan, Cape Town
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