EG LONDON FORUM
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states Gazette is not sure whether Tony Travers has seen the apocalyptic film 28 Days Later, but does not get a chance to ask the director of the London School of Economics’ Greater London Group, as he zooms on foot between meetings in the capital. So it may or may not be Danny Boyle’s 2002 horror flick (in which the plague-infested living dead take over London) that he has in mind when asked what may trip up London’s increasing sense of economic wellbeing. “There is still the risk of
further unexpected problems in the eurozone which, like the end of a zombie movie, can give a last scare,” he chuckles, suggesting he is not unduly worried about this. As a long- standing specialist in public sector policy, he appears more concerned about the potential actions of opinion poll-sensitive politicians. A reactionary and heavily restrictive
immigration policy would not be good for London, he warns. Neither would a cobbled-together housing tax, a debate on which continues to dog the market. “Uncertainty about what might happen next or ill-considered reform could result in a reduction in the construction of units
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and/or sales overseas,” he points out. Not that he is necessarily expecting
any of these things to happen, or indeed suggesting they may occur. “Economists and the entire commentator classes aren’t brilliant at forecasting changes and predicting the unpredictable,” he admits with a self-deprecating flourish. But he is happy to accept the ONS
projections that suggest that London’s population will swell to 9m by 2020 and 10m a decade later. He says: “I think that’s reason in itself to generate grounds for optimism.” Travers’ comments
about forecasts notwithstanding, he believes the capital’s economy is set for a
period of relative stability: “I don’t think we’ll be stuck in a Japan-style vortex of low growth – the next five years will
be better than the last five.” Although consensus figures suggest that in the medium term London’s output will be higher than that of the UK as whole, Travers doesn’t subscribe to the notion that the capital can isolate itself from the rest of the country, though he agrees that the disconnection between London and elsewhere is “problematic”. It is, he adds, more darkly, “always advisable to avoid resentment”.
8 June 2013
WHAT DO THE REST OF EG’S LONDON FORUM THINK?
Jo Valentine, chief executive, London First “It is good news that we have avoided a triple-dip recession but the reality is that we are
still in very uncertain times. What is happening with the eurozone is causing uncertainty for businesses. They are still downsizing – we are only five years into resolving a problem that could take a decade to fix. But the cranes on London’s skyline are evidence that the property sector is alive, although the picture is mixed. “Local councils should be
encouraging developers rather than putting obstacles in their way, which means planning authorities being sensitive to concerns about the viability of developments. In London, there is particular concern about how some boroughs are introducing the community infrastructure levy and, of course, the long-standing need to
His solution? Reduce spending on
consumption and channel it towards investment. “I’m strongly in favour of an urban lobby to argue for higher levels of investment in all centres,” Travers
T
The UK appears to have avoided a triple-dip recession. So will increased business confidence as a result stimulate central London’s property market for the remainder of the year? Reporting by Mark Simmons
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