Economic Outlook n° 1187 | Special Report | The Reindustrialization of the United States
It is the (macro)economy, stupid!
With the deceleration of the global economy and prolonged limbo of the euro zone, the U.S. economy appears to be particularly central to global recovery. However, domestically, several steps need to be taken to limit the damage of the fiscal cliff, curb unemployment figures, and benefit fully from the aggressive monetary policy stance chosen by the Fed. It will also be necessary to continue to unleash growth drivers: consumption, private sector investments, and exports to offset the gradual withdrawal of the post-crisis government spending, without causing damage. Is this feasible? We argue that there are some green shoots which could lead to a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, against which what we call the “Reindustrialization of the U.S.” is possible
A. Macroeconomic Forecasts for the U.S. U.S.A
GDP
Consumer Spending Public Spending Investment
Construction Equipment
Stocks * Exports Imports
Net exports * Current account **
Current account (% of GDP) Employment
Unemployment rate Wages
Inflation General government balance **
General government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) Nominal GDP **
6
share 100% 71% 19% 13% 2%
10% 0%
13% 16% -3%
2011 1.8 2.5
-3.1 6.6
-1.4 8.6
-0.2 6.7 4.8 0.1
-466 -3.1 0.6 8.9 2.0 3.3
-1250 -8.3
101.0 15 076
2012 2.2 2.0
-1.9 7.8
11.6 6.9 0.1 3.6 2.8 0.0
-508 -3.2 1.7 8.1 1.5 2.2
-1129 -7.2
104.8 15 684
2013 1.9 2.2
-1.4 3.9 9.5 2.4 0.1 4.3 3.5
-0.0 -495 -3.0 1.1 7.7 1.9 2.0
-1039 -6.4
108.1 16 230
2014 2.5 2.6
-1.3 7.2
10,3 6.5 0,0 6.5 6.5
-0.2 -477 -2.8 1.5 7.1 2.2 2.1
-981 -5.8
110.1 16 909
Change over the period, unless otherwise indicated: * contribution to GDP growth ** U.S.D billions Source : IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes