24 MusicWeek 14.09.12
www.musicweek.com
GO FOURTH AND MULTIPLY
RELEASES BY TIM INGHAM
T
he UK record industry has undeniably changed beyond recognition in the past decade - but some things have remained
stoically the same. For all the dramatic revolution caused by the likes
of iTunes, Amazon, Spotify and YouTube, bricks and mortar retail is still here – led by the florid High Street beacon of HMV. And across the gamut of these physical and digital outlets, you’ll still find record companies throwing everything they’ve got at the last three months of the year. The strength of 2012’s Q4 bounty is undeniably
impressive, with new offerings from musical goliaths such as Mumford & Sons, Leona Lewis, Ellie
The record industry is lining up its biggest releases for Q4 - but how much can these heavyweights boost an unspectacular year?
ABOVE Major priorities: Q4 musical goliaths include The Killers, JLS, Green Day and Emeli Sandé
Goulding, The Killers, Kylie, Green Day, Calvin Harris, DJ Fresh and JLS amongst others – not to mention a host of catalogue titles which will be weighing down Santa’s sack. However, some trade execs aren’t big fans of the record industry’s concentration on Q4, with both HMV and retail group ERA criticising what they perceive to be a weak release schedule at other times during 2012. “For six years we’ve been pushing the message to labels [to spread out their releases],” HMV music manager John Hirst recently told Music Week. “2012 is the worst example we’ve ever had.” Q4 bears a lot of industry expectation on its shoulders - especially right now. In the first half of
SHAPING UPTHE CATALOGUE MODEL
The hot young things of the music world take Q4 very seriously, but the gifting period is just as crucial for the catalogue market. Warner-owned Rhino will be releasing a Rod Stewart anthology and a four-disc Bee Gees box set (pictured) this year, in addition to a few as-yet-unannounced releases – perfect presents for the mum and dad market. “Set that in the context of the
growing digital opportunity – which we hope to capture by releasing a host of bespoke digital products – and it’s
shaping up to be a really interesting quarter,” says Rhino International and UK MD Dan Chalmers.
“Catalogue has been bucking the
industry trend to some extent since we're a little less exposed to factors that can influence the timing of a new release and we can build event releases and gifting opportunities throughout the calendar. “Around other key calendar dates
like Valentines Day and Mother’s Day we’ve seen a strong demand for super-deluxe box sets so we’d expect that to continue.”
this year, UK album sales stood at an unspectacular 43.6m, 13.8% down on H1 2011. However, digital album sales continue to grow, up 17.3% in the first half of the year - whilst Spotify recently announced a paying subscription base of 4 million people worldwide. Potential for both good and bad news stories abound this Christmas. “It would be good for the UK industry to end the
year on a high note in Q4 but, whatever happens, I think it would be a mistake to see one quarter – even the strongest quarter, traditionally – as the only barometer of future success,” says Warner Music UK CEO Christian Tattersfield. “This is a cyclical business and certainly this year
the release schedule across the industry has not been the strongest. There are some highly anticipated records coming through so we need to see what impact those have on the market. “At the same time, we’re seeing very encouraging
digital trends, both in terms of sales but also in streaming, so the diversification of the model is also going to have a mitigating effect that sales figures alone don’t show.” Warner’s own Q3 fiscal report was a
demonstrative microcosm for just how important these new digital revenue sources are becoming for labels: in the three months to June 30, 25% of its digital revenue, or around $54 million, was derived from streaming services. Yet more so than any other time of year, the
fourth quarter comes with a tantalising historical heritage of super-strong album sales.
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