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CANDLE LIGHTING


Friday, Jan. 20 Candles 4:40 p.m. Shabbat ends 5:48 p.m.


Friday, Jan. 27 Candles 4:49 p.m. Shabbat ends 5:56 p.m.


O


Israel shouldn’t expect stable coexistence with nuclear Iran By LOUIS RENÉ BERES


No ‘Balance of Terror’


n Jan. 16, 2003, the “Project Daniel” Group advised then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons. This


ANALYSIS


report, which contained substantial legal and strategic recommenda- tions, urged the prime minister to suitably enhance Israel’s deterrence and defense postures; to consider a prompt end to deliberate nuclear ambiguity (if Iran should be permit- ted to become nuclear); and to appropriately refine pertinent pre- emption options. It also concluded that Israel should not expect stable coexistence with a nuclear Iran and that active national defense should be increased and strengthened accordingly. Israel’s active defense strategy


involves mutually reinforcing the Arrow, Iron Dome and, in the future, Magic Wand systems. To adequately protect against a poten- tial WMD attack from Iran, howev- er, these advanced elements of bal- listic missile defense are not


enough. They must be optimally complemented by improved Israeli nuclear deterrence and by a capaci- ty for viable conventional first strikes against selected Iranian mil- itary and industrial targets. Under no circumstances, advised Project Daniel, should Israel assume that a safe and durable “balance of terror” could ever be cre- ated with Tehran. Generally, in


strategic thinking, deterrence logic must be based on an assumption of enemy rationality. This assumption might not always be warranted in the case of Iran. Any purported


Israel can never depend entirely upon its anti- ballistic missiles to defend against future WMD


attacks from Iran any more than it can rely entirely on nuclear deterrence.


analogy between Iran and the U.S. deterrence relationship with the former Soviet Union would be facile, or simply misguided. If Iran’s current leadership could somehow meet the core test of


rationality, always valuing national survival over other preferences or combination of preferences, there could still remain intolerable secu- rity risks to Israel. In part, these risks would be associated with Tehran’s expect- edly problematic command and control of any future nuclear capabilities. For example, even a determinedly rational Iranian leadership could base critical nuclear decisions upon erroneous information, assorted comput- er errors or frag- ile pre-delega- tions of launch authority.


The related vulnerability of com- mand and control to violent regime overthrow in Tehran must also be taken into close account by decision makers in Jerusalem. Ironically, there can be no assurances that any


new or “improved” regime in Iran would necessarily pose a dimin- ished security threat to Israel. If Israel’s active defense systems were accurately presumed 100 per- cent effective, even an irrational Iranian adversary armed with nuclear or biological weapons could be kept at bay without defen- sive first strikes or any threats of retaliation. But no ballistic missile defense system can ever be “leak proof.” Terrorist proxies in ships or trucks, not missiles, could deliver Iranian nuclear attacks upon Israel. In such low-tech but distinctly high-consequence assaults, there would be no security benefit to Israel from its deployed anti-mis- sile defenses. Israel can never depend entirely upon its anti-ballistic missiles to defend against future WMD attacks from Iran any more than it can rely entirely on nuclear deter- rence. This does not mean that active defense is a less than vital part of Israel’s larger security apparatus. It is vital, but it is not sufficient.


continued on page 12 Nipping Hatred in the Bud Fight anti-Semitism in the schools, not just the streets W By SCOTT M. STRINGER


hen swastikas were recently discovered on the windows of four


Midtown stores, it was not just the latest in a stream of anti-Semitic


CALL TO ACTION


incidents that have made headlines in New York City. It was a reminder that, no matter how many times Jewish community leaders, elected officials and others come together to denounce such reprehensible actions, they continue to scar the life of this city. In Midtown, swastikas were


scrawled on four storefront win- dows across the street from Bryant Park and the New York Public Library — the proud, intel- lectual center of New York — and this was the ninth such crime in


Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Jewish leaders called for action after the discovery of several swastikas on storefronts in Midtown.


three months. In response, I con- vened a press conference at the site of the graffiti, and urged all New Yorkers to come forward and notify our police department if they had any information about this incident.


As we gathered to condemn these


attacks, it was impossible to ignore the drumbeat of hatred that preced- ed them: In October, two anti- Semitic letters were sent to the Jewish Theological Seminary in Manhattan. In November, several incidents occurred in Brooklyn: • Hateful graffiti was found on


sidewalks in Williamsburg; • Multiple cars were set on fire


and defaced with anti-Semitic graf- fiti in Midwood; • The Avenue J subway station


was scarred with “Avenue JEW” graffiti;


• A man was stabbed on an F train platform in Park Slope by men who shouted anti-Semitic slurs; • A swastika was found on a


Williamsburg building, the second of its kind in nine days; and • Anti-Semitic graffiti was paint- ed on the windshield of a car in Marine Park.


This month, there were three vio- lent attacks against Orthodox Jews in Midwood, including the mugging of a prominent rabbi.


As I write, yet another hateful incident has come to light: Swastikas were found spray-painted continued on page 30


We need to institute a top-to-bottom course of instruction, so all of New York City’s 1.1 million public school students will learn that hate crimes are illegal and deeply offensive.


4 JEWISH TRIBUNE • JANUARY 20-26, 2012


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