of the projection. In 2015, it drops back to the 2010 level, which represents a 5.5 per cent reduction compared with BAU. In 2050, worldwide CO2
emissions in the
building sector are slightly below the level of 1990 and 43 per cent lower than BAU.
The most important result of these projections is that the green investment scenario for the building sector reaches substantial emission reductions compared with BAU, although the additional investment in the building sector and across the economy leads to an increase in GDP and energy demand. This shows the potential of the integrated investment package to reduce carbon intensity by decoupling economic growth from CO2
emissions.
Table 6 illustrates the general trend for emissions intensity relative to GDP in the building sector and the significant projected reduction of carbon intensity per unit of energy consumption resulting from the additional
investment in greening the sector. The
investments modelled in G2 result in a reduction of 45 per cent of carbon intensity compared with 2005, reflecting the stabilisation of energy demand through enhanced energy efficiency.
When considering the enactment of a cap and trade mechanism with carbon prices aligned with the 2009 US domestic proposal (reaching US$ 77 per tonne of CO2
by 2030 and US$ 221 by 2050, in constant US$ 2010), the
reduction in emissions in the building sector as a result of the green investment scenario would translate to about US$ 330 billion per year on average between 2012 and 2050.
Finally, energy efficiency will have an impact on job creation and employment. Energy-efficiency investments are estimated to create 0.38 job-years per GWh saved (Wei et al. 2010). The GER model simulations thus estimate that these investments would generate more than 1.2 million jobs by 2030, and a total of 2.6 million jobs by 2050 in the G2 scenario. Additional investments in greening the buildings and construction sector in other ways, such as more sustainable building materials, also have the potential to generate employment. It was not possible to include these in the model simulations, but it is important to note that such a shift will likely also require investments in workers’ education and training in addition to other transitional measures.
In summary, the green investment scenarios are limited in terms of specific investments in the building sector to energy efficiency, and have not been able to capture a wider range of possible measures. However, the results of even these limited simulations reveal the potential savings in buildings’ power demand. When the effects of rising renewable energy use are included, substantial reductions in GHG emissions are projected.