Manufacturing

efficiency improvements in manufacturing tend to reduce the need for workers in the same industry unless there is a resulting increase in demand (rebound). While the impact of greener practices on employment should not be overestimated, the empirical evidence supports positive effects of green practices on jobs. Direct effects of greening options may be neutral or small, but the indirect effects could be much larger (Lutz and Giljum 2009). This indicates that the economy would gain, especially in employment terms, from the introduction of greener production systems (Box 1). It must be noted that technological innovations are typically labour- saving and have often been accompanied by job losses.

After significant restructuring in the last century and increased automation and computerization in recent years, metals manufacturing is no longer the source of jobs it once was. Business-as-usual projections for the steel industry in Europe and the USA suggest job losses of 40,000-120,000 over the next two decades, faced with growing competition from Asia where production costs (wages) are lower. A BAU scenario in a study on climate action by the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC et al. 2007) projected that up to 2030, the de-localisation of 50 to 75 MT of steel outside the EU, or the equivalent of 25- 37 per cent of current production, is possible. This would have an impact of 45,000 to 67,000 direct job losses, to which 9,000 to 13,000 outsourced direct jobs are to be added – resulting in a total loss of 54,000 to 80,000 jobs directly related to production. In an alternative scenario, where European authorities and industry were assumed to pursue a low carbon strategy, it is estimated that 50,000 direct jobs, internal and outsourced, could be saved in the European iron and steel industry. This strategy would involve investment in R&D, installing more efficient technologies and applying a tariff on steel imports based on carbon content, thus enabling steel production by low carbon processes to be competitive.

Similarly, the capital intensive aluminium industry cannot be expected to be a major source of green jobs. The same applies to the less labour-intensive cement industry, where the introduction of more energy- efficient plants in major producing countries such as China and India will lead to fewer workers required there as well. In this scenario, greening becomes a critical factor for competitive advantage (delivering low carbon products) and job retention rather than job generation.

Against this background, secondary production (recycling), therefore, becomes a proxy for a greener industry (UNEP et al. 2008). This requires appropriate processing equipment and recovery systems, supported by effective government regulations. Japan has largely abandoned domestic primary production and switched to secondary production and imports. In the EU,

secondary production of aluminum provided 40 per cent of total output by 2006. The world’s largest producer of aluminum, China, is increasing its secondary production and faces shortages in availability of scrap metals. In the cases of India and Brazil, which has the highest recovery rate in the world for aluminum cans, endemic poverty is a key factor in driving recycling. This raises the challenge of ensuring decent work in an industry (recycling) where work can be dangerous, unhealthy and poorly paid.

Experience from the consumer electronics industry, producing products with increasingly short life-cycles, has shown how a growing problem of e-waste – going to destinations such as China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – results in environmental and health problems for both workers and society (owing to heavy metals and organic contaminants ending up in water and the food chain). While recycling is of great value in terms of resource conservation, it can entail dirty, undesirable and even dangerous as well as unhealthy work.

In the metals value-chains, there are significant job- creation opportunities to be found in the use and recycling of valuable byproducts and scraps. Around 21 million tonnes of ferrous slags were recovered from iron and steel mills in the USA in 2005 (van Oss 2006). This provided employment for over 2,600 people. Assuming comparable labour productivities in other countries, extrapolating USA data to other countries suggests that slag recycling worldwide might employ some 25,000 people (UNEP et al. 2008). Recycling of steel itself saves up to 75 per cent of the energy needed to produce virgin steel. In sectors such as the automotive industry and construction, steel recycling rates can reach up to 100 per cent. Less developed recycling systems and related infrastructure in developing countries result in lower recycling rates. A report by UNIDO (2007) has put the share of secondary (recycled) steel at 4 per cent in India, 10 per cent in China and 25 per cent in Brazil.

In the pulp and paper industry, where modernised and more efficient plants require fewer workers, recycling is the fastest growing source of substitute as well as new, green employment (UNEP et al. 2008). Recycling is labour-intensive and creates more jobs than incineration and land filling. This comes in addition to major savings in GHG emissions and landfill waste avoided. Paper comprises about a third of all municipal solid waste. Paper waste, growing faster than any other material in countries like China, is driven by increasing population growth, urbanisation and consumption patterns. For all materials considered here, studies have shown that recycling

is preferable to landfills and incineration

not only on an environmental basis but also since it creates more jobs. Related regulations on, for example, packaging will also impact job creation in the recycling industry.

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