NEWS I ROUNDUP
American PV market sees major growth
CAUGHT between strong utility-scale project demand, declining solar incentives in distributed generation applications, module over-supply, and significant policy uncertainty, the North American photovoltaic (PV) market is at a crossroads, according to the conclusions of the recently-released NPD Solarbuzz North America PV Markets Quarterly report. In Q4’11, the North America photovoltaic market is forecast to grow 33% Q/Q and 101% Y/Y. Q4’11 installations of more than 0.8 GW of PV capacity are expected, resulting in a total demand of over 2.2 GW in 2011.
The United States will account for 84% of North American demand in Q4’11; Canada, dominated by Ontario, has the remaining 16%. When viewed at a state or provincial level, California remains the largest single market in Q4’11, with 21% of market share. Ontario is forecast to become the second-largest region (16%), followed by New Jersey (11%). Demand in the United States market has spread to many states beyond California, but in Canada, Ontario is 99% of the national market, which creates significant policy risk. The primary driver in Ontario has been the feed-in tariff (FIT), while American states have been driven by a combination of policies and regulations at both state and federal levels. More recently, the US federal government
played a critical role in the US solar marketplace, providing investment tax credits (ITC), cash grants, depreciation bonuses and loan guarantees as vehicles to make PV more financeable. By the end of Q3’11, the federal government cumulatively awarded over $1.4 billion in cash grants for solar systems, which is equivalent to 800 MW of installed capacity. The California Solar Initiative, the largest state-level incentive program in the US, has supported over 650 MW since its inception in 2007.
In Q4’11, ground-mount installations are forecast to have 38% of the market, followed by building-mount, non- residential systems (>100 kW), which will have 37% of the market. The ground- mount segment benefited from demand from Ontario and from large-scale installations in California and Arizona . In Q3’11, the US PV market grew by 32% from Q2’11 and could reach 1.9 GW for the year, which would mean that the market has doubled in size for the second consecutive year. For large-scale non-residential and utility-scale projects in Q3’11 and Q4’11, the scheduled expiration of the US federal cash grant has encouraged progress to meet qualifying requirements; ongoing installation will continue throughout 2012, stimulated by the progress requirements for these cash grants.
MAGE enters Australian market
MAGE SOLAR, part of the global MAGE GROUP, is continuing its growth strategy and servicing the Australian market with its own sales team. On-site the Ravensburg specialist for integrated, customized photovoltaic system components offers high-quality modules, intelligent mounting systems and high- performance brand inverters.
The requirements for successful market entry are good: Australia has set itself the goal of obtaining 20% of its energy requirements from renewable energy sources by the year 2020. Many Australian regions are therefore encouraging solar installations by offering
explains Dr. Markus Feil, CEO of MAGE SOLAR AG. “With our own on-site sales team, we are positioning ourselves close to our clients on the Australian market and can therefore expand our global network of qualified trade & crafts industry partners.”
feed-in tariffs. The climatic conditions in Australia couldn’t be better – the insolation value is more than 50% higher than in Germany.
“Solar energy potential has not been optimally exploited in Australia until now. We therefore consider the chances of sustainably establishing photovoltaics and MAGE SOLAR as being good,”
Australia is the 14th international sales region in which the Ravensburger photovoltaic system supplier is present with its own sales team.
By using a skilled partner network of craftsmen, MAGE SOLAR ensures its customers a superb quality of installation and service, worldwide.
Issue X 2011 I
www.solar-pv-management.com 15
The next four quarters carry significantly more downstream uncertainty than normal. The SolarWorld Chinese anti- dumping petition has split the US PV industry, with clear evidence that some Chinese manufacturers and project developers have already started to delay shipments and installations. Taken together with the expiration of the US federal cash grant, deferral of module supplies awaiting a price bottom will slow 2012 growth. The North American market, however, is still forecast to triple in size by 2015, with the ground-mount installations securing the largest market share of 42%.
The Canadian market is continuing its growth in Q4’11, and is projected to increase 35% Q/Q and 33% Y/Y, as utility- scale projects continue development, most under Ontario’s previous incentive scheme. The province’s current incentive program stimulated 16 MW of residential during Q4’11 and will continue to be the primary driver of PV uptake. In terms of policy developments, attention is focused on the FIT review, conducted by the Ontario Power Authority. Expectations are that FIT rates will decline, but other aspects of the policy, such as local content requirements, will remain largely unchanged.
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