Libya – Special Report All change – North Africa’s huge potential
Neel Ratti of Tuscor Lloyds reflects on the Arab Spring’s effect on the market and how it will create opportunities for British shippers.
AFTER the much reported recent political turmoil in North Africa we hope that some nations are beginning to find their feet again. The UK has a long history of trade with North Africa. Many cultural
and economic ties still exist from colonial times, and more recently local people have appreciated the support and encouragement given to them by the UK during the political upheavals. British manufacturers retain an excellent reputation throughout the region. Trade is growing steadily and is bound to develop further after the UKTI announcement in October of the African Free Trade Initiative. For all their undoubted cruelty, the secular dictators of North Africa
oversaw important investment programs in port infrastructure. As recent- ly as January 2011, the Mubarak-led Egyptian government agreed capital expenditure of over US$16 billion for new equipment and upgrades across the country’s port facilities. More investment is needed however and while democracy is good for trade, the newly-elected North African governments must not be tempted to cancel the more astute deci- sions of their predecessors – no matter how hated their regimes were. A key industry for UK exporters to the region in
the future will be the energy sector. According to The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2011 World Energy Outlook, global demand for oil (currently at 88 million barrels per day) is likely to increase to 99 million bpd by 2035. The report claims productivity will fall for many oil producers over the same period and more importantly, production costs will increase
for almost all suppliers. The outlook for the North African fossil fuel industry however looks bright, with almost the entire shortfall in produc- tivity (nine tenths, according to the IEA) to be taken up by the Middle East and North Africa combined. The IEA estimates investment to the tune of $2.7 trillion is required
across the North African region in the energy sector to achieve this goal. This level of commitment cannot be exclusively provided by local busi- ness, and it is likely much of this assistance will come from established oil companies with the expertise and resources to reach productivity targets. We can be sure that UK business will be at the forefront of the develop- ment and the all-important logistics services will be offered to British forwarders.
Neel Ratti is general manager of Tuscor Lloyds. Upcoming Libya events:
Rebuilding Libya: Opportunities for British Business, 14 December 2011, London, contact
nnoakes@cityandfinancial.com Libya – The Future, 13-14 February 2012, contact Stephen Foley of Foley Associates (07966 200895, 01706 378827 or
info@libya-conference.co.uk) Libya Invest, 19-21 March 2012, Tripoli, contact Shujaat Ali (44 7557 501757 or
sa@libyainvestmentforum.com)
Useful websites and contacts for Libya:
www.Soclibya.com;
www.lbbc.org.uk;
www.knowlibya.net UKTI Libya team:
libya.businessadvice@ukti.gsi.gov.uk Visa specialist: John Downing (
jm@john-and-mary.demon.co.uk)
FSL Brindlex Ltd for:-
The Middle East and India
www.freightsystems.com
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