The 2010 financial year has seen a continuation in the positive trend in the claims development on the more recent policy years, particularly 2009 as can be seen clearly in Table 3 below.
CLAIMS Table 3: Net notified claims for policy years 2001–2010 at 20 February 2011
There is now strong evidence of a link between the performance of the shipping markets and the volume of P&I claims, particularly the attritional or lower level claims. Although there are some
100 150 200 250 300 350
50 0 0 4 8 12 16 Quarter
tentative signs of recovery in parts of the world economy, many sectors of the shipping market remain in the doldrums and this is likely to continue for at least the next 12 months. The outlook for attritional claims is therefore likely to be benign in the near future. The larger claims, typically those claims in excess of $500,000, are more random in nature and do not necessarily follow the same pattern
Table 4 shows the best estimate of the ultimate claims by policy year along with the cost of the Pool as a proportion of the total claims. The main change during the financial year to 20th February 2011
12
has been the positive development in the claims on the 2008 and 2009 policy years and the consequent reduction in the ultimate claims provision on those years.
The 2010 policy year is at a very early stage of development and even though the year is showing a similar development to that of 2009 policy year, as shown in Table 5, the claims ultimate is higher reflecting the inherent uncertainty in forecasting claims after only 12 months development. It is expected that 2010 is likely to deliver a similarly encouraging underwriting result as 2009 once the year has developed for a further 12 months.
20 24 28 32 2007 2006 2005 2008 2009 2010 2004
2001 2002
2003
Notified claims ($m)
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