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Opinion Ben Aris RUSSIA NOW


he most annoying thing about living in Moscow is the traffic: not the leg- endary jams, but the ar-


stand doubled-parked outside the Kremlin. The blue bucket protests are the sensational re- sult of a more mundane change appearing on the capital’s roads: Everyday drivers are fi- nally learning some manners. Following the collapse of the


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www.wciom.com Russian Public Opinion Research Center www.interfax.com International news agency www.medvedev2008.ru/english.htm Dmitry Medvedev’s speeches eng.globalaffairs.ru Russia in Global Affairs


BLUE BUCKET DEMOCRACY T


rogance of the expensive BMWs, Audis and Mercedes, some sporting flashing blue lights. They blithely jump out into the oncoming traffic and force their way in front of you, or run red lights causing you to slam on the brakes to avoid a crash. To obtain a blue light from


the police, you should be a min- istry official or duma member with very important business. Yet many Muscovites claim that for $10,000 and a little persua- sion, you too can be a blue- light VIP. But a small political revolu-


tion against the blue lights is underway on the streets of the capital; regular denizens have had enough. Owners of less ex- pensive cars have been sticking blue buckets onto the roofs of their cars in mockery of the blue lights, which are known as “mi- galki” in Russian. The blue lights bought by semi-important peo- ple grant drivers the right to ignore rules, although only in an emergency, officially. But the VIPs driving them have run amok. In protest, drivers have re-


fused to move out of the way when an expensive sedan is charging toward them in the wrong lane. And a few people are attacking the cars, which


Soviet Union, the only cars on the street were Russian-made Ladas or the “other” Soviet car: the Volga sedan. However, as some businessmen managed to start shipping copious amounts of oil and metals across the borders, a few ex- tremely expensive Mercedes came the other way. They start- ed a trend, and multitudes of stolen Mercs followed them in the mid-1990s. These days, thanks to bal-


looning incomes and easily available credit, the streets of Moscow are packed with every kind of car. The Mercs are still there, though now brand new and legally imported, but they are outnumbered by Fords, Daewoos and Toyotas. Back in the 1990s, the aver-


age Russian was too busy sur- viving to worry too much about the driving habits of the very wealthy, but that is now chang- ing as the middle class grows. Drivers will still typically thrust themselves into a line of traffic rather than wait their turn, and crossroads are regularly clogged as cars get caught in the mid- dle of the intersection when the lights change. But drivers are slowly beginning to relax as life gets better. A few drivers will now wait to let you out of a


fight against the migalki-sport- ing elite. Tempers flared in May when


a top-of-the-line Mercedes S600, blue light flashing, ran a red light on Moscow’s Fifth Av- enue, called Tversakaya, and rammed into a green BMW sedan. No one was hurt. It turned out the Mercedes be- longed to a high official. Predictably the police initial-


ly denied there was any acci- dent, and the (unidentified) oc- cupant of the Merc climbed into a jeep full of security men and sped off. However, the city cops ended up with egg on their faces after several witnesses posted pictures of the incident on Russia’s top social network- ing site LiveJournal.ru, and a storm of public protest fol- lowed. It seems that such hot-tem-


DRAWING BY DMITRY DIVIN


Drivers will still typically thrust themselves into a line of traffic rather than wait their turn.


Reader Suggestion: More Fiction LETTERS TO THE EDITOR


I just learned of RBTH. It is a very impressive e-paper, with a targeted audience much like that of The Economist. The lay- out is dynamic, the selection of topics is timely and of interest to your targeted audience: young, upscale, educated, cos- mopolitan, interested in Russia, especially people in business and world politics. Into this milieu, I would like to suggest the possibility of a


THE POLLS Russians Against “Migalki”


WHICH SERVICES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO USE SPECIAL SIGNALS TO AVOID TRAFFIC JAMS IN EMERGENCIES?


SOURCE: WWW.LEVADA.RU


While an overwhelming major- ity of the 1,600 Russians polled in 45 regions favored the use of "migalki," or special flashing blue lights that allow vehicles to pass through traffic in emergencies, for ambulance, fire and police serv- ices, only one out of 10 felt that deputies of the parliament should be allowed such privileges. Legis- lation to limit the use of migalki is currently under consideration by the Russian parliament.


literary supplement which would publish original works of fiction and poetry from Russia or about Russia, but with some attraction beyond the borders of Russia, very much like the at- traction of RBTH itself. My best wishes for RBTH, a


new voice in news about Rus- sian character, leadership and culture.


Craig A. Nelson GLENVIEW, ILLINOIS


In protest of the blue lights running amok, drivers have refused to move out of the way.


side road or make space so you can get across the lanes. If you offer similar courtesies, you’re likely to receive a quick blink of the hazard lights in thanks. Without wanting to stretch


the point, the blue bucket pro- test is arguably the a major sign of political awareness among


average Russians. Car owners are among the best-organized grassroots political forces in the country, and have already staged mass protests over high gas prices, import tariffs and corruption among traffic police. They now are becoming in- creasingly proactive in their


pered events are only pushing things further. The blue bucket protestors organized a demon- stration recently, driving their cars around the city. Another group of young men have taken to hanging out near the Krem- lin and attacking cars with mi- galki, running over the roof wearing a blue bucket on their heads and recording the inci- dents for the internet. This is the middle class in ac-


tion. They are now becoming increasingly proactive, and strange as it may seem, democ- racy in Russia today wears a blue bucket on its head.


Ben Aris is editor-in-chief of Busi- ness New Europe magazine.


DEFINE MODERNIZATION N


Dmitry Trenin


THE MOSCOW TIMES


ATO soldiers marching in Red Square on Vic- tory Day. Moscow agreeing on a com-


promise resolution of the 40- year sea-boundary dispute with Norway. The sight of Prime Min- ister Vladimir Putin kneeling at the memorial to the Polish of- ficers murdered by Stalin’s re- gime at Katyn. These are a few glimpses of what the New Eu- rope newspaper two weeks ago described as a kinder, gentler Russia. But three questions im- mediately arise: Is this real? Why the change? And how to re- spond to Russia’s new foreign policy? In this case, what you see is


what you get. Russia’s tone, es- pecially toward the United States, began to change last year, but the Kremlin’s support for a fourth version of United Nations Security Council sanc- tions on Iran demonstrates that, today, there is real substance. An apparently genuine inter-


nal Foreign Ministry document made it clear that the Kremlin


CORRECTION


The article titled "The Struggle from Stair to Door," which ap- peared on page one of the May 26, 2010, edition of Russia Now, had an incorrect byline. The author is Candice Hughes. Russia Now regrets the error.


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now prioritizes relations with the United States and Europe. All of this is a far cry from the 2007 Victory Day parade on Red Square, when then-Presi- dent Putin compared President George W. Bush’s policies to those of the Third Reich; or when Russia resumed strategic bomber air patrols in 2007 along the Norwegian coast and into the North Atlantic and the Caribbean; or President Dmit- ry Medvedev’s address to the nation on Nov. 5, 2008, when Medvedev threatened to de- ploy Iskander short-range mis- siles in Kaliningrad. Four factors have contribut-


ed most to this positive rever- sal: the Georgia war of 2008, the global economic crisis, the Obama factor and China’s re- lentless rise. The Georgia war demon-


strated how quickly relations with the United States could deteriorate, almost to the point of reviving the Cold War, leav- ing Russia isolated. The eco- nomic crisis destroyed illusions of sustained energy-fueled growth and the hubris that went with it. The Obama administration removed the principal irritants—


the prospect of NATO enlarge- ment to Ukraine and Georgia, close relations with the Geor- gian president and a strategic missile defense system in Cen- tral Europe. Obama also showed genuine respect to Russia. Finally, as China has become


more confident and assertive, its shadow over Russia has grown longer. Russia’s worsening credit rat-


ing and the tougher borrow- ing terms in the international market are forcing Russia to compete harder for capital. Obama’s openness and prag- matism have turned the Unit- ed States into a partner, but it is uncertain how long he will stay in the White House and how strong he will be in the future. The China partnership looks increasingly tilted in Chi- na’s favor. So Russia needed to adjust


its foreign policy. Passionate de- fense of Russia’s diminished sta- tus makes less sense than prac- tical efforts to stop the country’s decline and enhance its real power. Summits of the BRIC leaders are still held, but the real focus of Russia’s policy is the member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-


operation and Development, which have technology and money. Russian foreign policy’s new central task is to channel those resources to the coun- try’s modernization drive. Still, there are important ca-


veats. The Russian govern- ment’s concept of moderniza- tion is too narrow to succeed. Unless the basic conditions for doing business in Russia im- prove substantially and until the government starts to mod- ernize itself, technology trans- fers will have little effect. Putin himself has furnished


proof of that. Speaking recent- ly at the Russian Academy of Sciences, he said the Soviet economy was structurally in- capable of using most of the technological secrets acquired through KGB-style industrial es- pionage. Without an indepen- dent judiciary, secure property rights and a check on corrup- tion, Putin’s modernization will mimic Brezhnev’s. The danger is not of the Kremlin losing in- terest in technology transfers from the West, but rather its inability to create the right legal, business and political en- vironment to capitalize on them.


The West has broadly wel- comed Russia’s new line. Obama has sent a nuclear en- ergy cooperation agreement with Russia to Congress, while the European Union has offered a “partnership for moderniza- tion.” Both want Russia to com- plete its accession to the World Trade Organization. This is crucial. There can be


no better foundation for mod- ernization than WTO member- ship. The next steps are a per- manent normal trade status for Russia in the United States and practical moves toward a pan- European free-trade area be- tween the EU, Russia, Ukraine and other countries. The time to act is now. With-


in a few years, when it becomes clear to the Russian leadership that modernization conceived as technological innovation is too narrow to succeed, impor- tant choices will have to be made. Either the scope of mod- ernization will be broadened, or modernization will be abort- ed in favor of regime preser- vation. Forward-looking ele- ments in Russia will require compelling arguments if their case is to prevail.


Dmitry Trenin is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.


Previously published in The Moscow Times


cal battlefield on which major world powers fought it out for the choicest trophies. Today, ev- erything has changed. Almost every major power


A ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY U


Fyodor Lukyanov THE MOSCOW TIMES


ntil only recently, the territory of the former Soviet Union appeared to be a vast geopoliti-


Moscow was the only power compelled to participate in events in its neighborhood. This was partly due to having just functioned as the region’s cen- ter, and partly because Moscow was unable to isolate itself from the turbulent events occurring in its former territories. Russian policy was far from


has run up against its own dire economic and political prob- lems. This has made them too preoccupied with resolving their own problems to pay much at- tention to what is happening on former Soviet soil. Is Russia capable of taking advantage of these newfound opportuni- ties? It is as if the situation has re-


verted to what it was in the early 1990s. Then, amid the chaos and confusion of the Soviet breakup, there were few world powers desirous of getting in- volved in the murky politics of the newly independent states. Only later did the major pow- ers take a real interest in the re- gion. During the initial and risk- iest phase of the early 1990s,


ideal. At the same time, Russia undeniably contributed to the emergence of new states and, in some cases, played a key role as a stabilizing force. Only later did the world’s major players— the United States, the Europe- an Union and China—begin to develop plans of their own re- garding the former Soviet re- publics. That stage appears to have


ended. The United States has reassessed its priorities, focus- ing more on South and East Asia and the Pacific Rim than on the former Soviet republics. Wash- ington’s days-long silence over the unrest in southern Kyrgyz- stan speaks volumes. Even Eu- ropean Union projects such as its Eastern Partnership, which seemed so promising only 18 months ago, have been largely forgotten. China looks to its


neighbors as a means for achiev- ing its own economic goals, and Beijing has expressed no inter- est in taking responsibility for the region. New opportunities have opened before Russia, which has long sought recognition for what it calls its zone of “privi- leged interest” in the region. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanu- kovich’s dramatic rapproche- ment with Russia can be ex- plained not by any deep-seated


The United States has reassessed its priorities, focusing more on South and East Asia.


love for Moscow but because he has nowhere else to turn. An even greater lack of alter-


natives exists in Kyrgyzstan, where the violence is dramati- cally increasing. But how pre- pared is Moscow to take ac- tion?


Despite the presence of mili- tary bases belonging to Russia


and the United States, Central Asia lacks any security institu- tions. The Collective Security Treaty Organization has re- mained little more than a “club of Russia’s friends” that func- tioned merely as a symbolic counterweight to NATO. Now, however, there is an urgent need for the CSTO to play a role as a capable military and political alliance. What’s more, the CSTO lacks any clear rules or scenari- os to govern its actions, and even more important, there is a high level of mistrust between the member states. Most of those states understand the need to stop the chaos in Kyr- gyzstan, but they are terribly afraid to set a precedent of in- terfering in the internal affairs of a partner state. This is espe- cially true considering that in Bishkek itself, the interim author- ities do not have legitimacy, and to respond to their call for bring- ing in peacekeepers would mean supporting one side of the sec- tarian conflict. For Russia to send peacekeep-


ers to Kyrgyzstan, it would need if not a formal mandate then, at the very least, the consent of its main neighbors in the re-


gion—Uzbekistan and Kazakh- stan. Without that, Russian troops could be drawn into not only a civil war but an interstate war. It is also worth asking whether Russia even has pro- fessionally trained units that could play a peacekeeping role in such a delicate and danger- ous situation. How and when would such forces be trained? The post-Soviet world is en-


tering a dangerous new phase. The former Soviet republics have been left to cope with their prob- lems by themselves. The region- al efforts that various world pow- ers tried to launch for various reasons in the 2000s did not work. Now it even sounds odd to speak of Russia having a zone of “privileged interests.” If any- thing, Russia has a “zone of re- sponsibility.” If Moscow does not find a way to respond to challenges such as Kyrgyzstan, any later claims it might make to a special role in the region will be unconvincing.


Fyodor Lukyanov is editor of Rus- sia in Global Affairs.


Previously published in The Moscow Times


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