earth science
The human touch
principle, no warning system had been in communications to an onshore control
Computing applied to the
place for a region known to be vulnerable. centre for analysis. Poseidon, primarily
earth sciences will save
Prediction of a tsunami, once an underlying concerned with fluid phenomena, is dropped
seabed trigger has occurred, is a matter into deep water at distances upwards of
human lives, according
of rapidly (and preferably automatically) a thousand kilometres offshore and gives
to Felix Grant
analysing either seismographic or warning of a wave which has already formed.
hydrographic (or both) data. Seismic analysis The more sophisticated Vulcan sits closer to
is the key to long-term understanding which the coast, supplies data streams over greater
As you read this, a new US president may allow preventative planning and data bandwidth, and concentrates on
will be in his first weeks at the head of an effective protection of human populations. precursor indicators.
administration informed by respected earth It is the only realistic approach where the Whether underwater or on land,
scientists including John Holdren, Jane epicentre is close to the point of impact. predicting, or even just understanding,
Lubchenco, and Steven Chu. The words Hydrographic methods provide the most seismological probabilities is both vital
‘earth science’ usually evoke those disciplines ready and economic means of raising an and computationally intensive. As an
concerned with the lithosphere (particularly alarm when the trigger has already occurred IGOS report [1] noted almost five years
geology, seismology, and vulcanology), but at greater distance. Both approaches are data ago, ‘volcanic eruptions, earthquakes,
public concern is rising about the effects analytic. landslides and subsidence [are among] ...the
of human interaction with the other three The ‘Tsunameter’ system (from Envirtech main natural causes of damage to human
spheres as well – and all sectors of the of Genova, Italy) is an example of the mix. settlements and infrastructures’. Attention
earth sciences are intensive consumers of Two different types of observatory module, to such natural hazards is widespread and co-
computing resources. Poseidon and Vulcan, work independently, operative, embracing national government
Computational science began with water. or in concert, to generate a real-time stream organisations like the US Geological Survey,
Societies dependent upon fertile flood plains of data fed via surface buoy and satellite the China Earthquake Administration, and
surrounded by arid regions needed advance
knowledge of when their rivers would ebb
and flood; and from that arose everything
from algebra to astronomy. Today, from
acute surges in the Thames to chronic
vulnerability in Bangladesh, from one-off
disasters such as the 2004 tsunami to the
global rise in sea level, flooding remains a
primary concern. A tsunami is not only a
hydrospheric phenomenon, it is also in the
class of seismic events. Sea levels are rising
due to many causes, but one significant
influence is melting of old ice as a result of
changing climate – which also affects the
crust beneath it, and the flow of Coriolis
currents. Scientific computing in these areas
embraces collection, assembly, and analysis
of huge, complex data sets. There are other
data associated with the human impacts of
earth science events: mortality, economic
dislocation, rescue, recovery, and medical
demand.
Though tsunamis are well known
and recorded, Boxing Day 2004 had an
unprecedented impact on global psychology,
producing a new impetus for research.
illustration from cronin et al [30] on seismo lineament analysis showing identified seismogenic
There were widespread demands to know
sites (top) and stereographic projections of mean vector orientations, showing 90 per cent
why, when suitable technologies existed in
confidence interval uncertainties (bottom).
12
scientiFic cOMPUtinG WOrLD february/march 2009 www.scientific-computing.com
SCWfeb09 pp12-15 EarthSciences.indd 12 4/2/09 10:41:39
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