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Opinion
PAINFUL LESSONS LEARNED
Letters to the Editor
Strategic Nightmares age more Russians to read and
IN AFGHANISTAN
The encirclement of Russia by speak English so tourism in Rus-
NATO is a serious threat to Rus- sia grows and there are fewer
sia’s security and a strategic barriers.
nightmare for military planners. KAMALAKAR C
A powerful military is essential VIA E-MAIL
DMITRY BABICH
to Russia’s very existence. The
RUSSIA PROFILE.ORG suggested military reforms will Hillary Clinton and Hints
weaken Russia and embolden of Hope
In the 30 years that followed the de- those who seek the disintegra- U.S.-Russia economic-military-
ployment of Soviet troops in Afghan- tion of the Russian Federation. strategic issues should be solved
istan in December 1979, many arti- Russia desperately needs in- with great care, not with in-
cles were written about this war in ternational television stations to equality, as the outgoing Bush
the former Soviet Union and, later, present it to the global com- regime was doing with Russia.
Russia. The taboo on criticism of the munity from the Russian per- Regarding the Georgian con-
conflict was lifted as early as 1986, spective and not from the per- flict, U.S. diplomatic behavior
when President Mikhail Gorbachev spective of the biased Western with Russia was not good. I
started perestroika and the Afghan media. hope the present Obama ad-
pro-Soviet leader, Mohammad Na- OWEN LINDSAY ministration and Secretary of
jibullah, was urged to pursue a poli- VIA E-MAIL State Hillary Clinton will under-
cy of “reconciliation” towards the mu- stand the bilateral issues and
jahedin. The Soviet experience in Fight Isolationism develop high-profile diplomat-
Afghanistan could serve Western ex- I fail to understand why the peo- ic relations with Russia. Russia
perts, yet it gets little attention. ple of Russia don’t mingle with is a big oil and gas power. Under
Western policymakers describe the other countries’ peoples and in- the previous president, Putin,
war as one of the death throes of the stead maintain distance from Russia had revived its weak
collapsing communist regime, an “oc- others. I think this particular as- economy. Now Russia should
cupation” and an “aggression.” In
DRAWING BY DMITRY DIVIN
pect is widening the distance receive equal and more respect-
the same way, until his tragic death between Russia and the world. able diplomacy from the United
in the hands of the Taliban in 1994, Even though Russia has its own States and also Europe, because
Najibullah was described as a Soviet “I had an impression that they were Later, Zbigniew Brzezinski, president ghanistan. “Since Afghans have ex- culture, let the world also learn Russia can only balance Ameri-
puppet. The anti-Soviet mujahedin provoked into invading Afghanistan, Carter’s National Security adviser, ad- perience working there, this is a way about Russia and vice versa. I can geo-strategic interests in Eu-
were generally called freedom fight- that they took the bait,” Yuli Voronts- mitted that “inducing the Soviet in- of providing the Afghans what they hope the Russian government rope and the rest of the world.
ers by the Western press. ov, the last Soviet ambassador to Af- tervention” was a policy Carter’s ad- need most: employment. But West- promotes tourism for others to I hope Hillary Clinton will reshape
The victory of the Taliban and its ghanistan in 1988-1989, told me in ministration knowingly pursued. ern leaders insisted on building mod- visit Russia and initiates some foreign policy towards Russia
subsequent alliance with Al-Qae- an interview before his death. “Some- “That secret operation was an ex- ern factories, where Afghans simply sponsors in this regard as well. and improve relations with Rus-
da, both of them employing Ameri- one made them believe that Ameri- cellent idea. It had an effect of draw- can’t work.” This newspaper should concen- sia in the coming months.
can-made weapons and American- cans could invade Afghanistan from ing the Soviets into the Afghan trap,” Now Kabulov says that the Taliban, trate on publishing more inter- ANIL KUMAR UPADHYAYA
trained “experts” on car bombs from the south, using Pakistan as a launch he said in an interview to Le Nou- according to his estimates, controls national news and also encour- VIA E-MAIL
the anti-Soviet mujahedin movement, pad for their invasion. So, the deploy- vel Observateur in 1998. a larger and larger part of the coun-
further complicate the story. ment of troops was intended as a The plight of NATO in Afghani- try, while the Americans are bracing
So, what lessons can be taken from sort of preemptive action.” stan shows the Soviets were not the up for an operation against the Tali-
the Russian experience in Afghani- To prove his theory, Vorontsov only ones to be trapped. The second ban’s supporters in the “tribal areas”
stan? The first lesson is not to invade cited the presence of several Soviet lesson is that acting in Afghanistan of Pakistan. This way, the third les-
Love Hurts
Afghanistan. There is a consensus in anti-aircraft military units near Kabul alone, without the broadest possible son may go unheeded – the lesson
Russia that the deployment of troops until the end of the war. “The mu- international coalition, is certainly a not to broaden the zone of conflict
there was a mistake. The fateful de- jahedin did not have aviation, ex- bad idea. First, the U.S. wanted to and not to touch the combative Pa- The Russians, who know all about crisis situations, are
cision of Politburo members to top- cept maybe hunting falcons. So, who rebuild Afghanistan alone, later it in- shto tribes. feeling their love lives dampened by economic hardship
ple Afghanistan’s leftist leader Hafi- do you think they expected would vited European partners, but they If things continue developing in
zullah Amin, whom they suspected attack us from the air?” Vorontsov never made a serious effort to en- the same way, NATO may end up
THE RUSSIAN PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER (VCIOM) FINDS THAT
of being a CIA agent, was obviously said. “Of course, Americans. The Po- gage Russia in the process. learning the last Soviet lesson – when
MORE RUSSIANS ARE FEELING AFFECTED THE GLOBAL CRISIS, AND THAT
based on incorrect information and litburo members had a vague idea “Many times Russia suggested to you decide to leave, make your exit
THIS COULD BE KILLING THEIR ROMANTIC MOOD.
led to tragic consequences. about Muslim fundamentalism. But the Western donors that part of the from Afghanistan a negotiated one.
However, as more facts come to they inevitably took a fighting stance money channeled to Afghanistan Otherwise you can be destroyed on IS THE ECONOMIC SITUATION A CRISIS? ARE YOU IN LOVE WITH SOMEBODY?
light, the motives of the Soviet lead- whenever they heard of Americans should be spent on relaunching some your way out of the country.
-
ership prove to be more complicated doing anything anywhere, especial- of the old Soviet projects, including
than a simple desire to expand the ly in the Soviet Union’s soft belly, as a construction plant there,” said Zamir Dmitry Babich is acting editor-in-chief
“Soviet empire.” Afghanistan was perceived by them.” Kabulov, Russian ambassador to Af- of the Russia Profile online magazine
POWER OF THE PAWN
has stated that it is ready to expand then shifted its focus to Iraq, but did Russia is assuming that Washing-
FEDOR LUKYANOV
MOSCOW
its support for the efforts of the Unit- not plan to withdraw from Central ton has no alternative to serious co-
ed States and NATO to stabilize the Asia. operation with Moscow. Stepping up
Central Asia, which includes the five situation in Afghanistan. As the United States became more its military operations in Afghanistan
ex-Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, The U.S. military bases appeared active on post-Soviet territory and the will require increased logistical sup-
SOURCE: WWW.WCIOM.RU
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as the competition for energy resources port. There is no confidence in Paki-
and Uzbekistan, as well as Afghani- result of an informal agreement be- stepped up, the atmosphere between stan as a transit point for supplies – The global crisis cannot defeat sian Center for the Study of
stan, is vast, bounteous in places, tween Presidents Vladimir Putin and Russia and America was souring. On the situation there is becoming Russia; even as more feel the Public Opinion.
and hurting. The potential of this George W. Bush in the autumn of the whole, the Russian leadership was increasingly threatening. downturn, Russians have prov- “Compared to the pre-crisis
region has been overshadowed 2001. It later became clear, however, deeply disillusioned with its anti-ter- Finally, the countries of Central Asia en their resilience in times of period, we see a considerable
by chronic poverty and growing eco- that the two sides had different views ror cooperation with Washington, are in a fraying economic situation. hardship. drop in the amount of Russians
nomic instability. Now, at the cen- on this development. Russia felt it had feeling that it had given much but For Moscow, keeping them afloat is What it has defeated is their who believe they are in love,”
ter of international attention, will the taken a huge step by allowing U.S. in return had only seen the United not just an opportunity, but essen- love lives, according to polls. a VCIOM spokeswoman said.
region benefit? armed forces to be stationed in its States intruding on the territory of tial. A social and economic collapse More Russians view the econom- "Unfortunately, people began
First, the new U.S. administration “soft underbelly." It was expected that the former U.S.S.R. in Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan would play ic situation as a crisis, up from thinking about love consider-
announced that Afghanistan and Iran this gesture would be taken in good Today, a new chapter is opening. out negatively for Russia. 34 percent to 43 percent since ably less."
were its top priorities. Second, energy faith. Barack Obama intends to focus on It seems that in the run-up to the December. Almost 40 percent Those in love are often men,
security and alternatives for Europe are For its part, the United States took the Afghan war, because the West- April meeting between Presidents of Russians say the crisis man- married and between the ages
again the subject of intense discus- Moscow’s actions for granted. First, ern coalition is almost on the brink Medvedev and Obama, both sides agement plan will have a posi- of 18 and 34. Perhaps more in-
sion, and this region has huge hydro- to leaders such as Donald Rumsfeld of defeat there. At the same time, Af- will raise the stakes. The ousting of tive effect, but the recession may teresting is the result that more
carbon deposits. Third, the Central and Dick Cheney, Russia seemed in- ghanistan is a unique case in which the U.S. from Manas could be met play a role in the romantic down- than half of women (61 per-
Asian countries themselves have suf- significant. Secondly, in the spirit of the interests of virtually all the influ- with a press for Russia to reduce its turn. The Russian Opinion Re- cent) say they do not feel love,
fered badly from the economic crisis the “battle against world evil” pro- ential actors coincide – Russia, Amer- nuclear arsenal. However, there is still search Center performed a re- making Russian men appear
and are in need of urgent help. claimed by Bush after the 9/11 ter- ica, the E.U., India, China and even a feeling that while both sides have cent survey on what role love more romantic, and Russian
Kyrgyzstan’s decision to ban the U.S. rorist attacks, there was not supposed Iran do not want the Taliban to re- little mutual trust, there is a desire to plays in the life of Russians dur- women appear more pragmat-
from using the Manas military base to be any reward for supporting the turn to power. That’s why the White improve this situation.
-
ing these trying times. ic. Only 15 percent of Russians
has sounded a warning to Washing- “forces of good," because fighting the House reckons it will be easier to reach The opinion poll, released believe love rules the world;
ton: Nothing can be achieved here “enemy of humanity” was perceived agreement on the problem of Afghan- Fedor Lukyanov is editor-in-chief of the three days before Valentine's however, the percentage of Rus-
without Russia’s consent. Yet Moscow as a common good. America istan. Russia in Global Affairs journal Day, found only 45 percent of sians who think money rules the
Russians say they are in love. world has declined from 54 to
At least 53 percent said they 39 percent. But more Russians
were in love between 2003 to still think money rules the world
STIMULATING THE
The way out of this is to deliberate- 2007, according to the Rus- over anything else.
ly increase internal demand (govern-
ment orders, public works, refinanc-
ing commercial banks so that they
can provide credit to the industrial
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
sector), to expand tax incentives for
long-term investors, and to reduce in- OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE NOT NECESSARILY THOSE OF THE
terest rates. It’s time to tackle non-
EDITORS OF ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA AND RUSSIA BEYOND THE
monetary inflation: The population in-
HEADLINES. THIS SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT TO THE WASHINGTON
creasingly needs to see limits imposed
POST IS PREPARED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA.
YAKOV MIRKIN
December, industrial production in ket and the start of an industrial slump. on prices for medicines, food, utilities
PLEASE SEND YOUR COMMENTS TO EDITOR.USA@RG.RU.
MOSCOW the United States and the euro zone The second phase saw the beginning and transport.
fell by eight percent from last of a squeeze in the industrial econo- Retail prices are not responding to
Could the current crisis make 1998, year. America has experienced noth- my, and the state’s foreign currency the fall in demand. The greed of those
when the ruble collapsed complete- ing like this since the transition from reserves were pumped into private who set these prices is notorious and
ly, look like caviar and champagne? wartime to peacetime production in currency holdings. The third phase, unlimited, and has brought the world
For today’s Russia it is the first real, 1945, and we haven’t seen the end in 2009, opened with a jump of 20 to crisis.
cyclical crisis, the kind that brings pro- of it yet. to 30 percent in prices for consumer While we don’t know what still lies
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found corrections to the world econ- Before the crisis, Russia’s economy goods, a 35 percent reduction in trans- ahead, we must learn the lessons of
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Oil prices are not going to rise to- ble, raw material exports, and unlim- are predicting a 1–2.5 percent fall in terial prices and foreign money. It can-
NORA FITZGERALD SUBEDITOR (U.S.A.) NICOLAI KOROLEV PHOTO EDITOR
morrow or the day after tomorrow. ited access to foreign money. But now their economies this year. This means not be resurrected as a system of
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Global prices for all the most impor- we’ve got to address the hardest ques- demand for Russian raw material ex- buy-outs, land barons and state mo-
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tant types of raw material shot up fast- tions: How can we maintain social sta- ports will fall further still, which will nopolies. We need to stimulate the
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price of oil would double, and then ing again? How can we grow supply of currency reserves and the approach tax incentives. Russia needs to stimu-
ALEXANDER GORBENKO GENERAL DIRECTOR VLADISLAV FRONIN CHIEF EDITOR.
drop to only one third of where it and demand within the country, and of hyperinflation. late its own economy in a way that pro-
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the way it has been over the last 20 a new phase in the crisis. The first phase is not a panacea. Yakov Mirkin is Director of the Institute
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