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SUPPLEMENTREVIEW & OUTLOOK


Prototype components of GE Renewable Energy’s Haliade-X 12 MW offshore wind turbines started to move around the globe for testing in 2019. The second Haliade-X nacelle (pictured) arrived at the port of Blyth for testing during November.


in the cost of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), which soared to USD710 per metric tonne on January 2 – an increase of 30 percent compared with December 2, 2019. As the price spread between low- sulphur fuel oils and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) widened, the carriers that opted to install exhaust gas cleaning systems were early winners, but whether that remains the case as the market stabilises is yet to be seen.


Greenhouse gas reduction The shipping sector cannot afford to rest on its laurels, however, as attention should now turn to the next major disruption – the IMO’s 2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategy, which has set a target to cut GHG emissions by at least 50 percent, compared to 2008 levels. Slated to be an even bigger challenge than Sulphur 2020, a report by University Maritime Advisory Services (UMAS) and the Energy Transition Commission for the Getting to Zero Coalition forecast that at least USD1 trillion of capital investment would be required to meet the targets. Land-based initiatives – including in the


production of low-carbon fuels, their storage and bunkering infrastructure – represent the lion’s share of the total investment required. According to the study, only 13 percent of the investment is related to the ships


34 January/February 2020


themselves, including the machinery and onboard storage required for a ship to run on low-carbon fuels in newbuilds and, in some cases, for retrofits. As a wider green movement swells,


policies are emerging from national governments, states, utilities and insurance companies that aim to put the world on a course towards net carbon neutrality, which is changing the project logistics landscape. Renewable power projects will develop


apace. Enhanced turbine performance, attractive incentives and slick supply chains have increased the viability of utility-scale wind power projects in new markets, such as the Asia-Pacific region and offshore USA. Solar power projects, which continue to grow in size, will increasingly draw on the skills of project logisticians to keep construction schedules on track. At the same time, demand for fossil fuels


will keep growing. Their phase-out in the medium-term is a pipe dream unless there is a truly monumental shift in the way the


Demand growth for cleaner burning LNG will spur on the development of infrastructure to extract and transport that fuel.


world consumes and generates its power. The heady days of cavalier investments


into dozens of concurrent, large-scale oil and gas developments are over, but demand dictates that projects will continue – albeit on a smaller, rationalised scale. In 2019, oil and gas projects representing around USD200 billion of investments were sanctioned; Rystad Energy forecasts that nearly USD225 billion worth of projects will be sanctioned this year. The transition to a less carbon-intensive


future will undoubtedly have an impact on how developers approach oil projects, but research suggests that from 2027, additional volumes from as-yet-undiscovered fields will be needed in order to meet demand. Global exploration efforts must continue in order to discover those resources. It therefore stands to reason that


investments should continue to flow, and while the next 12 months might not see a wealth of cargoes moving for the oil and gas sector, 2020 could be the year where the foundations for recovery are put in place.


LNG infrastructure Meanwhile, demand growth for cleaner burning LNG will spur on the development of infrastructure to extract and transport that fuel. Global need for countless refined petrochemical products also bodes well for


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