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Q TECHNICAL PAPER


We cannot say that this particular air-pollution regulation caused significant behavioural changes, at least not in terms of sailing speed


Discussion


Overall we do not see a noticeable effect due to the introduction of the North American ECA on vessel behaviour. Aggregating the relative difference over all vessels irrespective of their size bin, the mean sailing speed is -0.15kt with a standard deviation of 1.27kt. In view of the large standard deviation, we would not classify this as a significant result. On the one hand, compared to the


previously mentioned work on estimating speed changes from fuel-consumption optimisation, this is a comparably weak effect. Consulting the optimisation results and taking into account the 2012 fuel prices of HFO and MGO (as only a handful of vessels use scrubbers), we would expect to see a further two-thirds speed reduction compared to the analysed (AD) levels. On the other hand, the empirical study on


speeds in the North Sea ECA also observed no noticeable difference in speeds when


The dataset of sampled vessels was divided into groups – or size bins – according to TEU capacity range


Size bin TEU range Vessel population s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7


10-199


1,000-1,999 2,000-2,999 3,000-4,999 5,000-7,999 8,000-11,999 12,000-14,500


TOTAL


42 68


102 344 238 100 1


895


investigating the introduction of that ECA in November 2007, most likely because there are factors other than fuel price that go to determine vessel speed. This leads to the conclusion that speed optimisation has been of little concern when sailing in the North American ECA, but due to the huge variation of the data, we cannot


exclude other factors responsible for this behaviour. Hence, we cannot say that this particular air-pollution regulation caused significant behavioural changes, at least not in terms of sailing speed. Nevertheless, this work constitutes a first


step towards a rigorous analysis of impacts on the shipping industry caused by regulatory processes. We present a method of visually and numerically analysing vessel speeds using freely available tools (albeit licenced data), and walk through the analytical steps. As concerns from within the shipping sector


are often expressed as anecdotes or claims, analysing shipping behaviour empirically provides firm evidence for policymakers and substantiates policy-specific questions.


* For a more extensive version of this work, see the proceedings of the Shipping in Changing Climates Conference 2015, which you can find at lowcarbonshipping.co.uk


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