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Democrats for the Senate as opposed to 31% for Republicans. Likewise, 38% of respondents said they intended to vote for Democrats for the House, with 30% supporting Republicans. House Democrats outraised their


rivals this election, with $8.6 million on hand, versus $7.7 million for the GOP. In the Senate, however, Republicans held $5.3 million, compared to the Demo- crats’ $5 million. If Democrats gain control of the


After a federal redistricting decision, Del. Chris Jones, R-Suffolk, chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, has seen his 76th District shift from leaning Republican to Democrat.


as a Republican stronghold, according to the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP). A 62-year-old retired high school government teacher and father of four who has held his seat since 1989, Cox was knocking on 50 to 55 doors per day in his district this summer. “I’ve been running full speed in my


new district. I have about 30,000 new vot- ers, but I’ve gotten a good reception. We’ve tried to be very responsive,” says Cox, adding that his constituents are most con- cerned about “business and K-12 education and health care.” After redistricting, “the speaker’s


district has moved from being a completely safe district ... to a toss-up,” wrote Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of Christopher Newport University’s Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy, in a September election preview report. In July and August, Cox brought in $390,453 in donations, compared to $330,347 raised by his opponent, Bynum- Coleman. However, Cox’s war chest of $590,172 dwarfed Bynum-Coleman’s $341,463. By the end of August, Cox had already


produced two television ads, including one spot that prominently features an African American supporter saying that Cox is “definitely one of us.” (In redistrict- ing, Cox’s district went from 18% to 34% African American.) His other ad focuses on his 14 years as a youth baseball coach. By contrast, Bynum-Coleman debuted


22 | OCTOBER 2019


one TV ad in early September. (The Rich- mond Times-Dispatch reported that the ad, titled “Kirk Cox Sold Out,” incorrectly states that Cox voted against teacher raises — confusing him with former Del. John Cox, R-Hanover, who did.) Cox isn’t the only high-profile politi-


cian campaigning for his political life this election season. After the redistricting, Del. Chris Jones, R-Suffolk, chair of the powerful House Appropriations Com- mittee, has seen his 76th District shift by more than 27 points to become even more Democratic-leaning than Cox’s district. With Republicans holding slim


majorities of 51 to 48 in the House and 20 to 19 in the Senate, political observers say Democrats have their best chance to gain full control of state government for the first time since 1993. Normally, Virginia’s off-year legisla-


tive elections “make barely a ripple on the sea of political news coverage,” says Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. However, “this year is an exception because both houses are so evenly divided and no other [state] legislatures up [for election] this year are in a position to flip party control.”


‘Watershed moment’ A mid-August poll of Virginia vot-


ers conducted by Roanoke College found that voters were more inclined to vote for Democrats. Of the 556 likely voters polled statewide, 36% would support


House of Delegates, Virginia also is likely to have its first female Speaker of the House: Del. Eileen Filler-Corn, D-Fairfax County, the current House minority leader. Additionally, the first Democratic


House majority in more than 20 years “would give unprecedented influence to Northern Virginia,”which boasts the largest concentration of Democrats in the General Assembly, says Steve Farns- worth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “The election will be decided on party and issues, but having a majority of women candidates — a first for either party in Virginia — is a plus for Demo- crats,” Sabato says. A record number of women, 12, were


elected to the House of Delegates in 2017. The even larger number of women run- ning for state office this year demonstrates how they are reshaping the political and business landscape, says Deirdre Condit, a professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University. “In terms of women, the 2017 elec-


tion in Virginia was like the watershed moment for the country,” Condit says. This fall’s elections will also deter-


mine which party has more say in drawing boundary lines in the 2021 redistricting, granting the majority party the power to shape General Assembly and congressio- nal districts for the next decade.


No ‘dead men walking’ Quentin Kidd, dean of the College


of Social Sciences at Christopher New- port University, says Democrats appear to have momentum and an edge in taking majorities in both chambers, especially the Virginia Senate, where two retiring GOP senators live in districts vulnerable to Democratic takeover.


AP photo/Joe Mahoney


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