more than the nation as a whole. In Loudoun, a full-time worker would have to earn at least $32 an hour to afford a two-bedroom apartment, according to a 2019 report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition. That might be much lower than national record holder San Francisco’s $60-an-hour requirement but it’s notably higher than the Virginia aver- age of $23 an hour. That means many employees of the
county’s businesses have to commute long distances, the advisory commission noted. This results in businesses having difficulty hiring and retaining workers. In response, this January the county
enacted a housing plan that would per- mit 40,950 additional homes by 2040, mostly in suburban sections to the east and planned urban areas around new Metrorail stops. The plan took 3 ½ years to complete, largely due to conflicting ideas and debates about priorities. “For the first time, there are a lot of
other voices in the area,” says Phyllis J. Randall, chair-at-large of the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors and the first African American woman elected to
lead a Virginia county board of supervi- sors. “We are more diverse now — not just ethnically but also diversity of age, of experience, of income.” Mixed-use suburban development
will be key, Randall says. She points to Kincora, a development from Tritec Real Estate Inc. and Norton Scott LLC on 424 acres at the corner of state Routes 7 and 28. Among the development’s planned amenities is a children’s science center. Kincora’s first large multifamily construction, the 333-unit Jameson, is expected to open this year, joining already-built condos and a 96-unit affordable-housing apartment building.
Open questions These trends are shaping the state,
from voting patterns to development plans. But exactly how much remains a mystery — for now. Not until the 2020 Census is complete, experts say, will the full contours be visible of who is living where. Ever since the 2010 Census,
researchers, economists and regional planners have been extrapolating from
it and other data to guide their analyses. When this year’s census figures are tal- lied, they will see how close to the mark their projections have been. “A lot of people have a lot of expec-
tations riding on this [census],” says the Richmond Fed’s Pinto. “We will want to confirm with hard numbers these trends we have seen.” But already it is clear that, from
legalizing hemp farming to expanding Medicaid to enacting gun-control leg- islation, these new suburban residents have set in motion changes in the commonwealth that will have effects far beyond their walkable new-urbanist enclaves. From large-scale developers who
need to attract buyers, to retailers aiming to set up storefronts near their custom- ers, how businesses adjust to these new suburbs will make — or break — many of them, experts say. “You can either lean into a certain
kind of climate and make it your friend — or you can fight it,” says CNU’s Bite- cofer. “It’s my experience that leaning in is a better strategy.”
A HEALTHY PORT DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH
from FY13-FY18
251
Businesses either located to, or expanded in Virginia because of port activity
In facilities for warehousing, distribution, and manufacturing across Virginia
$8.5 Billion 25,761
New jobs – salaries, paychecks and – at companies in Virginia that are tied to port activity
Source: The Fiscal Year 2018 Virginia Economic Impacts of The Port of Virginia, 2019, Raymond A. Mason School of Business, The College of William & Mary
www.VirginiaBusiness.com VIRGINIA BUSINESS | 45
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