Cover Story Self-driving cars timeline
Based on predictions from a variety of news reports and reports from industry sources and tech experts, here are some autonomous driving milestones people may be seeing in the not-too-distant future:
2019-2021: General Motors, Uber, Lyft plan to launch competing autonomous commercial taxi services in American cities.
2020: Semi autonomous cars capable of independent highway driving available for sale in latest models from major auto companies.
2020-21: Fully self-driving Level 5 vehicles will be ready for production. 2021: Self-driving cars will be able to drive better than humans, predicts tech billionaire Elon Musk. 2023: Self-driving taxis will be ubiquitous in urban areas.
2025 to 2030: Personal vehicle sales may decline as consumers come to rely on automated on-demand vehicle services for transportation needs. 2026: 50 percent adoption of automated braking systems in U.S. vehicles. 2030: Automakers manufacturing only autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles from this point forward 2035: Half the vehicles on U.S. roadways will be self-driving. 2049-2054: Market saturation; 90 percent of U.S. vehicles are self-driving.
Sources: Various industry sources
self-driving or remotely driven vehicle. The barriers to producing Level 5,
fully autonomous, self-driving cars are physics and artificial intelligence, Dingus says. Self-driving cars just don’t yet pos- sess enough sophisticated intelligence, sensors and visual equipment to handle the numerous decisions that drivers make
every day in dealing with traffic, weather and road hazards. “Is there a technology ready to handle
any situation in any environment? I would say no,” states Fleming with Torc Robotics. Nonetheless, he likens the evolution of self-driving cars to that of cell phones:
“Who would have thought that during the age of brick[-size] cell phones [in the 1980s] that one day there would be a phone where we could pay our taxes, find a date and order a pizza? … It’s not like the cell phone industry said, ‘OK, we’re done developing cell phones and we’re going to move on.’” Perhaps the most intriguing aspect
of developing self-driving technolo- gies, Fleming says, is the potential for completely reinventing the driving experience. “If you think about it,” he says, “automobiles have been designed around the driver for the last 100 years. And one of the things that really excites me is, over the next 100 years, we’re going to design cars around passengers, because the driver is going to be a computer, and … we can really start from scratch … You can rethink the interior design from an infotainment standpoint.” Says Fleming: “[Self-driving cars are]
something that we’re working on today, and 10 and 100 years from now, we’re still going to be working on it.”
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32 APRIL 2018
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