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What happens after Article 50?


43


Right now, both ‘Remainers’ and ‘Brexiteers’ must pull together because there is no going back.


BREXIT. IS IT A LIVING EXAMPLE OF THE CHAOS THEORY? Eureka. I remembered the scribbles in my student text books. Perhaps not that well. But as I recall it, ‘The Chaos Theory’ goes roughly as follows. Regular known factors that produce predictable results in perfect science are replaced with factors that in themselves have degrees of variance which create results that are only predictable to a certain point beyond which they become increasingly complex interactively and eventually random. Like the weather for example. We think we know what it will do in two or three days in some detail but not in the next month ahead. Which if you get my gist is exactly like Brexit. Who knows what’s going to happen next?


BREXIT. CAN WE LISTEN TO THE EXPERTS? Last month Donald Trump said “you cannot trust the experts. The experts know nothing”. Pre-referendum Michael Gove said “people have become increasingly worried by experts and no longer trust them.” The economists, the International Monetary Fund, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Governor of the Bank of England and the Prime Minister all warned the voting population that leaving the EU spelled doom. They didn’t allow for the perverse variations in the response of the voting population. A 2% variance in the predicted norm has


triggered the Chaos Theory. Recently, Tony Blair and John Major have become very unlikely bed partners with the same message. Major has said Brexit was one of the “most disastrous decisions ever made.” While Blair insists that we can rise up and challenge the events of the last year and should be able to vote again once we all know the real exit terms. But within the Chaos theory, we won’t know the real terms or how they impact on our lives.


Not without waiting for any long-term results to materialise. Then won’t it all be too late?


BREXIT. THE FROG IN THE WATER EXAMPLE Right now, both ‘Remainers’ and ‘Brexiteers’ must pull together because there is no going back. Any re-union with Europe would surely be on worse terms than those Cameron negotiated before the referendum. Once again, I checked my notebooks.


Charles Handy – in the late 1980’s I think – gave us the example of the frog in the saucepan of water. It goes something like this. Place a frog in a saucepan of cold water on the stove and turn up the heat. By small degrees the frog will become aware of the changing temperature but becomes more tolerant of the changing environment than it would be if dropped into water of the same temperature. Continue to turn the heat up and at the point at which the frog realises that it’s endangered it’s too late to save itself. Fellow frogs. We might have just jumped in time to save ourselves.


THE OUTCOME OF BREXIT. MACRO OR MICRO ECONOMICS? In the 1950s economists attempted to engineer the laws that would predict the outcome of changes in our economic welfare. Working from the macro-economic end is the curious hydraulically powered predictor machine. Mr Phillips – its inventor – believed it could accurately predict the future of our economy. A recent Guardian article explains. “Water fl ows through a series of clear pipes, mimicking the way that money fl ows through the economy. It lets you see (literally) what would happen if you lower taxes or increase the money supply or whatever, just open a valve here or there and the machine sloshes away showing water levels in various tanks


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