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www.russiaprofile.org The Weekly Experts Panel: Medvedev is the One
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Russia & World
05
Opinion:
Analysts question the form that Russia’s foreign policy quent assertive tone in foreign policy. This change of priorities interests are ignored by the international community; this has led
will take under the likely new president, Dmitry Medvedev. Some was not a sign of inconsistency, but rather a response to the to political and economic confrontations with Europe. However,
Relations With
argue that he will merely continue the course of his predecessor. unwillingness of the EU and the U.S. to take Russia’s interests these conflicts do not benefit any of the sides involved. Sooner
However, this can’t be the answer because Putin’s approach to into consideration. Moscow felt that its gestures of goodwill had or later, they will have to come to an agreement on several key
the West After
the outside world has not been consistent throughout his presi- not been reciprocated in any way; these gestures included the issues.”
dency. scrapping of military bases in Vietnam and Cuba, consenting to Dmitry Medvedev, for his part, has signaled that he’d like to re-
Putin
A brief look back in history will remind us of the first phase of “the the U.S. stationing military bases in Central Asia and Moscow’s solve these issues sooner rather than later. In a recent Moscow
Putin doctrine,” which culminated in the aftermath of the Septem- acquiescence to the expansion of NATO and the EU into former press conference attended by foreign journalists, Medvedev
ber 11th attacks. This period was characterized by attempts to Soviet territory. For its part, the U.S. had moved its military bases made clear his plans to continue all major energy projects
DMITRY BABICH engage the United States and Western Europe in projects that to Russia’s Western doorstep, scrapped the ABM treaty and with foreign participation and his desire to engage the West.
were mutually beneficial. Probably its most productive facet was promised to install antimissile defense bases in Eastern Europe. However, Medvedev also made it clear that he would not toler-
RUSSIAPROFILE.ORG
Russia’s cooperation with Western powers in toppling the Tal- This put Putin at odds with the Western powers. ate foreign involvement in Russia’s internal political affairs, nor
iban regime in Afghanistan. “Under Putin, Russia became a more assertive international would he seek the West’s approval before conducting foreign
The second phase developed after the “Orange Revolution” in player,” says Yuri Borko, an expert on Russia-EU relations at the policy with neighboring states. He will likely pursue both vectors
Ukraine in 2004-05. It involved Putin’s unsuccessful attempt to Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Europe. “Putin has of Putin’s diplomacy, hopefully with an emphasis on engagement
intervene in Ukraine’s domestic affairs and Moscow’s subse- showed the West that Russia will not simply stand by when its rather than confrontation.
Critical Juncture The next president’s role is critical for foreign relations
The transfer of power in Russia
is a captivating process and we
Putin Sets
Foreign Policy
will follow its twists and turns at
His Sights
least until spring. The external
circumstances have all but displaced
Beyond
the substantive part of the election
and the New President
campaign. Everybody is interested in
Russia
the “how”, and few are interested in
the “why”.
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
It was a risky step, but Putin ap-
FYODOR LUKYANOV
parently decided that firm, if
MOSCOW costly, international commit-
ments would aid Russia’s eco-
The next Russian president’s nomic and social development.
approach to foreign policy is of “Sochi 2014” was also a critical
critical importance because it foreign policy gesture: what
will mark the end of the transi- better way to advertise Rus-
tional period that began with the sia’s recent economic suc-
breakup of the Soviet Union. By cesses to the entire world?
2012, Russia’s future role in the This is instrumental to assess-
world will become clear. ing Putin’s domestic policy. In
At the start of the new millenni- his understanding, a state
um, Moscow, despite all of the should, above all, play and win
political and economic chaos of on the global political and eco-
the previous years, remained nomic market. As a former
one of the key forces in the geo- KGB officer, Putin warrants
political order. However, it was that foreign policy override ev-
not strong enough to uphold its erything else. He has also
views and pursue its objectives. demonstrated his intention to
Using that foundation, Vladimir use Russia’s territory and re-
Putin set about implementing sources to achieve this.
his own agenda. He sought to Putin waited until the last min-
regain Russia’s status as a su- ute to embark on “Operation
perpower that has a say in glob- Successor.” This was not so
al affairs. Overall, he succeed- much a program for the trans-
ed. Today Russia is an important fer of power, or even an at-
player in the world, whose opin- tempt to consolidate his party
ion is carefully considered by Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev in parliament. Its purpose was
other nations. in Novo-Ogaryovo, a presidential to strengthen Russia’s eco-
The next president will face a residence outside Moscow nomic position in the world
task no less challenging than VLADIMIR RODIONOV arena. By carrying out the
Putin’s. Russia, now back in the transfer of power suddenly and
club of great powers, will have to quickly, Putin accelerated the
determine its role and learn to liances is particularly important answer impromptu questions in
parlay its abstract influence into for a multi-polar (and, by defini- a substantive way. Business Expects
the weight of Putin’s immense consolidation of strategic as-
popularity behind them. Yelena sets in all spheres vital to for-
tangible geopolitical and eco- tion, less stable) world. And yet However, it turns out that other Sharipova of Renaissance eign policy positioning: during
nomic dividends. Both require Russia, instead of building heads of state do not necessar-
major efforts on the part of the such a system, is still gloating ily have to remember the capac- New President to
Capital comments, “Putin’s plan the summer, Putin set up the
is like the Bible – in it one can Unified Aircraft Corporation
national leader. over the failure of American at- ity of a gas pipeline, the techni- find a quotation to justify any and the Unified Shipbuilding
During the last year of his presi- tempts to dominate the global calities of the work of pumps or
dency, Vladimir Putin rammed a political arena. In five to seven the niceties of the investment Free the Economy
economic step.” Corporation. In autumn, even
Many experts also agree that more state corporations – Ros-
hole in the West’s polite indiffer- years’ time, Russia will face a legislation in this or that country. for all the inevitability of eco- tekhnologii (Russian Technol-
ence to Moscow’s attempts at far more pressing problem, Their task is to promote their nomic liberalization, the govern- ogies) and Rosatom (the for-
getting across its opinions on namely, its inability to rival the overall political position, which Few people in Russia doubt stock, which provided Western- ment will continue socializing a mer Federal Atomic Energy
vital issues. But thereafter, a political influence of the steadi- calls not so much for superior that Dmitry Medvedev ers with the ability to invest in its number of industries. “The state Agency) – were created.
pause set in. While it has man- ly growing Chinese tiger. intellect as for a special flair will win the presidential assets and sent the company’s first took over the most profit- In addition, Putin tried to pre-
aged to break the indifference of Third, the issue of exploiting that comes with political expe- elections in March 2008, market capitalization soaring to able raw materials industries, serve complete control over
its partners, Moscow has failed new opportunities is acute. Vlad- rience. In such cases, highly and expectations for his $345 billion (the third highest then it declared its interest in Russia’s accumulated financial
to present a clear-cut and con- imir Putin’s style makes sense qualified and energetic bu- tenure continue to grow. The level in the world). During this high tech products, and now it resources. The promotion of Fi-
sistent set of proposals. It there- at the stage of national reasser- reaucrats enter the scene to key problem he will face as time, Medvedev remained will turn to industries which busi- nance Minister Alexei Kudrin, a
fore must rethink is foreign poli- tion after a period of decline. But advance the given policy in a president will be overcoming mostly behind the scenes. ness does not want to develop,” liberal-minded politician famous
cy and determine its priorities, self-assertion cannot be an end competent way. the inertia of Vladimir Putin’s He will likely maintain part of this predicts Matrosova. She be- for his devotion to building up
yet again. Russia’s record on the latter last years in office. clandestine nature during his lieves that Russia is merely bor- state reserves of gold and for-
First, Russia must move from count is far less impressive for presidential tenure. However, rowing the experience of Japan, eign currency, to the post of
exposing the imperfections of “The...public is proud a variety of reasons, including
RUSTEM FALYAKHOV / RBK DAILY
Makarkin also thinks that Med- Germany and many other coun- First Deputy Prime Minister was
the world to proposing viable so-
not of international
personnel selection and psy- MOSCOW vedev has a stronger personal- tries in consolidating problem- a sign of Putin’s sound commit-
lutions to its problems. Nations
solutions that are
chology. This forces the Presi- ity than most people expect: atic assets: “The state will take ment to using the state budget
professing a leading role in
good for the country,
dent to focus on superficial ef- Not much is known about pres- “He will have to liberalize the over sluggish industries, invest for economic development in
world politics are expected to fects. The result is paradoxical: ident-to-be Dmitry Medvedev, economy, rid it of red tape, carry and then re-privatize.” accordance with his geopolitical
have a strategic vision and dis- but of the worsening the Russian public is proud not but it is clear that his tenure in out major judicial reforms and However, even optimists con- ambitions.
play more than mere rhetorical
relations with foreign
of international solutions that the Kremlin will only be suc- adopt effective anti-corruption tend that serious improvements Nobody can be absolutely cer-
brilliance. One current aspect of
states, viewing them
are good for the country, but of cessful if he improves the busi- laws. Otherwise, his policies are will not come in the near future. tain that Putin will become
this problem is the debate over
as a show of ‘strong
the worsening of relations with ness climate. The fact that such doomed to failure even with According to Makarkin, “2008 is prime minister if Medvedev is
Kosovo. Russia must propose a foreign states, viewing them as a policy would bring him in di- windfall from high oil prices.” lost because of the presidential elected president. As Putin
solution to the seemingly frozen character’” a show of “strong character.” rect conflict with most of the rul- Some experts believe that the election. 2009 will be spent fine- said recently, he is not even
issue, rather than simply oppos- Russia’s foreign policy priori- ing elite, which is profiting from Medvedev will improve the tuning the state apparatus. Only sure of this himself. Nobody
ing the West’s stance. The posi- ties for the coming years must the absence of the rule of law, credibility of his reforms by pre- in 2010 can we hope to see can guess whether Putin
tion of “interminable negotia- in itself, especially because be the subject of a broad and basic property rights and a co- senting them under the guise of Medvedev’s policies begin to would like to become Russia’s
tions” is losing out because it such behavior has a sobering competent debate because the herent tax system, brings into “Putin’s plan,” thereby throwing bear fruit.”
-
president one more time.
lacks initiative. effect on partners only at the ini- price of incompetent analysis question Mr. Medvedev’s ability Some experts believe that
Second, the mantra about a tial stage. After a while they is too high. Furthermore, sup- to achieve this, at least in the Putin will occupy a key position
multi-polar world, which sound- adapt to it, often benefitting from planting such analysis with pro- near future.
ed fresh a couple of years ago, it themselves. paganda – whether pro- or In regards to his track record,
MORE READING...
in international politics. But it is
already clear that, regardless
has lost its novelty. In fact, such Russian bureaucrats who are anti-government – is simply accounting expert Yelena IVAN KRASTEV / Director of the Center for Liberal Strategies, Sofia of the political post he occu-
incantations are even harmful engaged in international activi- dangerous.
-
Matrosova of BDO Yunikon de- "RUSSIA AS THE "OTHER EUROPE" pies, Putin will continue work-
for Russia because they divert ties tend to be proud of their scribes Medvedev as an “active
Russia in Global Affairs, № 4, October-December 2007
ing to promote Russia’s influ-
the world’s attention from ana- president’s “intellectual superi- Fyodor Lukyanov is the editor- participant in the political and eng.globalaffairs.ru ence in the global economic
lyzing strategic matters to insipid ority” over his foreign counter- in-chief of the magazine Rus- economic reforms mostly cred- and political system.
-
talk about Russia being “an in- parts. Granted, Vladimir Putin sia in Global Politics. ited to Putin.” Alexei Makarkin LEONID POLYAKOV / Prof. at Higher School of Economics, Moscow
dependent power center.” stands head and shoulders Originally this article was pub- of the Center for Political Tech- "RUSSIA AND EUROPE: NO INTERMEDIARIES NEEDED" The article appeared
A clear-cut system of princi- above many of his interlocutors lished in the “Vedomosti” nologies also gives Medvedev
Russia in Global Affairs, № 4, October-December 2007
in Expert magazine
ples, priorities, relations and al- when it comes to the ability to daily credit for liberalizing Gazprom’s eng.globalaffairs.ru http://eng.expert.ru
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