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PHOENIX REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
Welcome to a Seller’s Market in Phoenix Summer 2015 -‐ Tina Tamboer-‐Gla4elter, Senior Real Estate Analyst | The Cromford Report
The Phoenix residen-al resale market took a significant turn benefi8ng sellers at the end of February 2015. Supply and demand had been in a balanced state for months before the implementa-on of new loan programs began to take effect, increasing demand. Evidence that consumers are taking advantage of reduced FHA mortgage insurance premiums and 3% down conven-onal financing became evident when contract submissions in the MLS increased directly aNer the Super Bowl and surpassed 2014’s peak.
What’s causing the sharp turn for sellers has less to do with the increase in demand and more to do with the lack of new lis-ngs to replenish supply. In fact, demand has finally risen to where it should be normally for the size of our marketplace. However, the lack of new lis-ngs to replenish those that have sold is causing a supply shortage in the lower price ranges.
When supply is low and buyers have fewer choice s, sellers develop an upper hand at the nego-a-ng table. Normally this would mean fewer concessions to buyers in the form of closing costs, repairs, home warran-es, etc. However, even though buyers in the lower price ranges are in a frenzy compe--on for lis-ngs, there is s-ll a high percentage of accepted contracts with seller-‐assisted closing costs. This can be aWributed to the fact that many buyers in this price range are not cash buyers, but first-‐-me home buyers who lack the cash for closing costs. It is especially evident between $100,000 and $200,000, where nearly 40% of all sales through the MLS include seller-‐assisted closing costs.
! Sales under $300,000 represent 77% of all MLS resale transacLons.
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With over 77% of the market in a hot or frenzy situa-on for buyers, overall price apprecia-on is an-cipated. It will be more drama-c under $200,000 where the supply shortage is most severe and new construc-on is not prominent. Over $300,000 will be more modest in price apprecia-on due to their added compe--on from new construc-on and a healthy number of new lis-ngs replenishing supply.
% of Sales with Seller-‐Assisted Closing Costs March-‐April 2015
Source: Arizona Regional MLS Price Range
Under $100k $100k-‐$200k $200k-‐$300k $300k-‐$400k $400k-‐$500k $500k-‐$1M Over $1M
20.0% 39.7% 31.5% 23.2% 12.1% 5.9% 1.3%
Townhouse Market Heat* 12.8% 19.6% 10.6% 4.3% 5.0% 0% 0%
Condo / HOT
Warm Warm Warm Cool
*A frenzy is defined as a market where more lis-ngs are under contract than ac-ve for sale. A hot market has 60-‐99 lis-ngs under contract for every 100 ac-ve.
A warm market has 30-‐59 lis-ngs under contract for every 100 ac-ve.
Open Contracts vs. AcLve LisLngs
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