grain instead of being allowed to forage. Hog and poultry CAFOs are especially prevalent in China, Tailand, and Vietnam, where they have been built to meet booming Asian demand for meat, poultry, and eggs. Worldwide, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimated in 2006 that 80 percent of growth in the livestock industry came from industrial production systems.


CAFOs are widely recognized as air and water pollution sources because they concentrate ani- mal waste and emissions. McDermott points out another impact: disease transmission. “As you put more animals in contact with each other, you increase the risk of transmitting infectious dis- eases that can move from animals to humans,” he says. Historically, influenza viruses have arisen from parts of Asia where poultry, pigs, and people live together in densely packed com- munities. In recent years, diseases such as Nipah virus infections in pigs and people have emerged with livestock intensification in Southeast Asia.


“Managing the intensification of livestock farming so we don’t get outbreaks of known or emerging diseases is a big concern,” McDermott observes. In his view the greatest risk is posed by small- to medium-sized farms where workers have less experience than at large operations in isolating and quarantining sick animals.


“We need to create incentives for people to get HOW


MANY KILOGRAMS PER PERSON


2000 2050


trained and certified in procedures that address big risks,” he says. “Tat’s a much more positive outcome than regulating from the top down.”


Expanding livestock production in develop- ing countries is an important way to help poor people increase their incomes and improve their food security and nutrition. “Tere are a lot of things we can do that will make operations more sustainable,” says Rosegrant. Priorities include developing higher-quality and more digestible animal feeds; improving waste- management techniques; and breeding animals that can tolerate heat and drought, so they can be raised in marginal areas. Building more roads and processing systems in rural areas will connect farmers to markets. And since livestock production is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, carbon credits or similar measures will be required at some point to give producers incentive to reduce those impacts.


“All of the demand growth for meat today is in low- and middle-income countries, so we need to keep their perspectives in mind as we work to modernize the livestock sector,” says McDer- mott. “Smallholder systems in Asia and Africa will be with us for at least several more genera- tions. We can’t expect poor countries not to have livestock, so we need pro-poor solutions to these challenges.”


Latin America/ Caribbean


East & South Asia/Pacific


Central & West Asia/North Africa


Africa south of the Sahara


Design: © 2012 C. Hallowell/IFPRI. Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections. 23


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