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politics | pimedia.org.uk


March 2012 | Pi Newspaper politics@pimedia.org.uk


The year may bring a new Cold War


Samuel Levy Politics editor


IN MID-February, Foreign


Secretary William Hague claimed that Iran’s suspected nuclear arms programme has the potential to occasion “a new Cold War” in the Middle East. In light of Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s heavily anti-Israel proclamations over recent years, including the much scrutinized “Israel must be wiped off the map”, his comparison of Israel to “a cancerous tumor” and his description of Israel as a “stinking corpse”, the worry has been that the nuclear tension between Iran and Israel will escalate over the coming months as Iran’s nuclear potential progresses. It has been estimated that the peak of this tension will be circa October. In the meantime, there have


been speculations that Israel will launch a preemptive strike against Iran. Shashank Joshi of the Royal United Services Institute suggests that, as it stands, the likelihood of


an “Israeli strike” is “20-30 per cent”. This is a distressing thought. However, given that there has been no conclusive evidence that the Iranian nuclear programme is necessarily a weapons-based one, it seems that Joshi’s estimate is too high because it seems near impossible that Israel would strike unless prompted by a manifest threat. Furthermore, Ahmadinejad’s anti-Israel remarks have not categorically claimed that military action, nuclear or otherwise, will be taken to “obliterate” Israel; rather the remarks are loaded with the more passive suggestion that Israel “will soon disappear off the geographical scene”. Nonetheless, while there do not


appear to be immediately worrying prospects of an Israel-Iran conflict, it is still worth recognizing the consequences of Iran possessing nuclear arms or “hedging” (i.e. having the technology available such that that they are able to develop a nuclear weapon on short notice). The key consequence is summarised by


Hague’s statement: “If [the Iranians] obtain nuclear


weapons capability, then I think other nations across the Middle East will want to develop nuclear weapons. And so, the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented would have begun with all the destabilising effects in the Middle East.”


The likelihood of an


Israeli strike on Iran is 20-30 per cent


Indeed, Mr Joshi, by and large


sees eye to eye with Mr Hague. He considers it likely that, should Iran possess nuclear arms or the possibility of said arms, “Egypt and Turkey would reconsider their non- proliferation policies” and many countries in the Middle East will look for “nuclear umbrellas”. With all this said, it must be


emphasized that it is still not entirely clear that Iran is in fact pursuing a nuclear programme with a view to creating arms. The Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, has plainly stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not intending to acquire nuclear arms because they are “useless, harmful and dangerous”. Tehran continues to be adamant that its programme is exclusively one for nuclear energy. Sir Richard Dalton defended the truth in this by asserting that Iran is not “rushing towards a nuclear weapon”. All the same, the situation in


Iran is undoubtedly problematic and shrouded in secrecy. The authorities in Tehran have frequently been evasive and have hindered International Atomic Energy Agency investigations over recent months. A representative of the IAEA claimed in late-February that the Iranians have been “disappointing” in their cooperation and have refused inspectors access to certain suspect nuclear sites.


At the same time, an undeniable


ill feeling persists between Iran and Israel and the USA due to the considerable number of suspicious deaths among Iranian nuclear scientists, the most recent being Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, a scientist who worked at an Iranian uranium enrichment facility and was killed by a car bomb. Iran has accused Israel and the USA of bringing about this and many other deaths of their scientists over the past few years – accusations that they emphatically deny.


Whether or not there is a “crisis


coming down the tracks”, in the words of Hague, there is certainly more taking place in Iran than meets the eye. As 2012 progresses, we should expect to see rising nuclear tensions in the Middle East but, for now, given the clandestine nature of things, it seems unlikely that Iran, Israel etc will take any rash action. However, this year is likely to reveal if indeed we are on the way to the New Cold War.


Fit Bodies:


Statues, Athletics and Power Competition for UCL students


What is a fit body? What do we mean by ‘fit’? Take an alternate view of physical fitness and submit an image based around the idea of ‘fit bodies’ for exhibition in the Petrie Museum of Egyptian Archaeology and around UCL Campus from June to September 2012. This event is to mark the Olympics.


Competition guidelines and entry form downloadable from www.ucl.ac.uk/museums/petrie


Up to 10 images will be professionally printed, mounted, framed and exhibited. The winning entry will receive £100 Amazon Vouchers.


Fit Body? Is this a Closing Deadline 12pm on Friday 23 March 2012.


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