Page 6 ■ Thursday, February 9, 2012


BAKKEN NEWS


This aerial view of the North Dakota Veterans Cemetery south of Mandan almost resembles late autumn with no snow cover in sight on Jan. 17. The small triangular pond in lower right gives away the prevailing temperature of the brown landscape. TOM STROMME/Tribune


It’s dry out there North Dakota is ‘abnormally dry’ during low-snow winter


By JENNY MICHAEL Bismarck Tribune


After the last three winters, the people


of North Dakota were ready for a break from constant snowfall. But instead of just a milder winter, the Bismarck area is on pace to have the driest winter on record. Bismarck had received 5.9 inches of


snow through Feb. 1, for the season that runs from July 1 to June 30. The lowest snowfall total on record was 11.7 inches in 1980-81. The average through Feb. 1 is 29.4 inches. Compare those numbers to the last


three winters. By Feb. 1, 2009, Bismarck had received 61.8 inches of snow. By Feb. 1, 2010, the total was 33.6 inches, and by Feb. 1, 2011, the snowfall total was 52.8 inches. January 2012 also was the ninth


warmest January on record in Bismarck, with record highs of 55 degrees on Jan. 3 and 4, 59 degrees on Jan. 5 and 53 de- grees on Jan. 9. The most snow that was ever on the ground during the month was 1 inch. The conditions are similar statewide:


According to the University of Ne- braska-Lincoln’s U.S. Drought Monitor, most of North Dakota was considered “abnormally dry” as of Jan. 31, while the Red River Valley and northeastern North Dakota were considered in “moderate


drought.” Only the very tip of northwest- ern North Dakota was not experiencing any level of drought conditions. National Weather Service hydrologist


Allen Schlag said the state has entered a “meteorologic drought” rather than a hydrologic drought. Grounds statewide had plenty of moisture heading into the fall, but there hasn’t been signifi cant pre- cipitation since prior to the fi rst week in August, he said. Streams and rivers are still running at levels considered normal to above normal for this time of year, and there is still subsoil moisture. “Primarily, I’m not concerned, just because it’s a meteorologic drought. We’re not seeing rain, we’re not seeing snow,” Schlag said. However, if the dry conditions continue into the typically wet months of March, April and May, Schlag believes there could be problems. For instance, the tall grasses left behind from last year’s wet conditions are brown and would be perfect fuel for fi res. “We could start it out with a fi re sea-


son, that’s not pleasant,” Schlag said. Continued dry conditions also could


hurt agricultural products and already may have done so. Morton County Extension Agent


Jackie Buckley said alfalfa and winter wheat may have experienced winterkill due to a freeze-thaw pattern this win- ter, where warm temperatures thaw the ground and cold temperatures freeze it


repeatedly because there is no snow to act as insulation. She said farmers and ranchers who want to see how their crops have fared can pick some samples, bring them into their homes and see whether they are alive. Schlag said the same problems could


destroy strawberry plants in gardens. On the other hand, the warm, dry


winter has helped livestock producers. Animals eat less when the weather is pleasant, saving producers some feed, and there are fewer problems to deal with overall. Calving and lambing is more pleasant in the dry, warm condi- tions than in the bitter cold and wet. “We probably won’t have any frozen


ears, and they’ll all have tails,” Buckley said. “It is really nice.” One dairy producer told her he be-


lieves he is saving $200 a day not push- ing snow and not feeding as much as in the past few winters. If the dry condi- tions continue, most producers will have hay and other feed available to give to animals longer than most years, Buckley said. In the short term, it seems likely to


stay dry. Schlag said meteorologists have said there are no big, wet storms on the horizon for the next couple of weeks. However, it’s too early to say whether the dry conditions will continue beyond that. Schlag said the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is


forecasting above-average precipitation for March, April and May. Even that doesn’t mean a lot though — the CPC predicted above-average precipitation for December, January and February, too. Schlag said meteorologists have had a hard time predicting what the weather is going to do because the arc- tic oscillation has been keeping the ex- pected La Niña conditions at bay. Since that doesn’t happen often, the forecasters have little historical data to rely upon. “I’m not going to cry wolf that we’re


going to have a drought,” Buckley said, noting that the early spring months tend to be wet across the state. Even without more snow, it’s still too early to say what the effects could be on cash crops. “There’s probably enough moisture


there to get a crop started,” Buckley said. “It doesn’t take much for a crop to ger- minate.” After that, timely rains could do as


much for a crop as winter snow could, anyway. “We’ll need some moisture to get ev-


erything started in the spring,” she said. Schlag said there is one positive to a


dry winter, regardless of what happens next. “Obviously, it’s diffi cult to have fl ood-


ing without water,” he said. (Reach reporter Jenny Michael at 701- 250-8225 or jenny.michael@bismarcktri- bune.com.)


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