SUSTAINABILITYSUPPLEMENT 09


up 46% on 2009/10 to more than £900 million per annum by the end of 20197


. This is due to the


assumed increases in the prices of electricity and diesel and the fact that energy consumption keeps increasing in that period. It is worth noting that energy costs are somewhat decoupled from carbon emissions; i.e. whilst carbon emissions may go down, due to greater electrification and the decarbonisation of grid electricity, energy cost will go up. While under such a ‘business as usual’


scenario passenger emissions fall to 40.1gCO2 per passenger km and freight falls to 25.9gCO2


per tonne km, a rise in absolute Figure 1: Carbon emissions 2009/10-2018/9


of where the industry believes the rail market will be within 25 years. The industry outlined its ambition to enable rail to cut its carbon emissions by 50% in the long-term and contribute widely to cutting transport’s carbon emissions. This, it stated, could be achieved through electrification, cleaner fuels and greater energy efficiency. The plans and analysis in this document


lay out the first, crucial steps to achieving that ambition.


The GB rail carbon footprint Research commissioned within the SRP calculated that the whole-system carbon footprint of rail in 2008 was made up of 63% traction, 15% non-traction and 22% embodied emissions. Traction emissions, which make up the


bulk of overall emissions, have remained roughly level in both absolute and normalised terms since 2008, despite significant increases in capacity. Traction energy costs are currently


approximately £600 million, or 4% of industry costs and are expected to rise with general


energy prices due to:  Rising oil prices  A potential gap in UK domestic supply as power stations are decommissioned


 The cost of investment in renewable and low-carbon generation


 Increasing electricity demand as a range of sectors, including road, decarbonise through electrification


 Increasing legislative pressure, such as a carbon floor price, Carbon Reduction Commitment and the EU Emission Trading Scheme.


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Carbon in 2014 and 2019 (GB next funding and planning period) Looking forward, carbon trajectories have been developed against these scenarios using a modelling approach developed by the Department for Transport (DfT). The trajectories are dependent on a range of assumptions, and in some cases there remains some uncertainty in delivering assumed changes. As such the trajectories are indicative and not forecasts. The trajectories are based on an estimate of


current emissions based on the timetable and rolling stock and using the environmental module of the DfT’s Network Modelling Framework. Future emissions are then forecast using a series of top-down overlays constructed from assumptions around the key drivers of


change. These include:  Increases in passenger and freight demand consistent with industry forecasts


 Changes in rolling stock such as the introduction of new rolling stock5 regenerative braking


or


 Agreed electrification schemes such as the Great Western Mainline, schemes in the North West of England and Edinburgh to Glasgow Improvement Programme


 Changes in grid electricity emission factors, based on DECC projections


 The transition to zero sulphur fuel in 20126 and the gradual increase in biofuel content.


Based on these ‘business as usual’ impacts, emissions are forecast to fall slightly through CP5, having risen 5% between 2009/10 and 2013/14. This is reversed in the longer-term as the impacts of greater electrification are felt reaching a reduction of up to 32% by 2050. Energy costs rise much more substantially,


emissions between 2009/10 and 2018/9 would not tally with a stated ambition to reduce absolute carbon emissions or the need to deliver a low-cost railway (see Figure 1). Further efforts on energy efficiency are needed and the industry is committed to progress this.


Energy efficiency measures 2014-2019 An industry workshop was held to consider how to reduce carbon emissions further and gain energy savings. Potential efficiency interventions were prioritised, with business cases then developed to consider financial payback and potential barriers to implementation. Ten interventions were prioritised by the


industry, with subsequent research excluding four where there was insufficient data or clearly no business case8


. The remaining six were9 :


 Promotion of eco-driving practices  Reduce diesel engine idling  Selective engine shut down  Further roll out of regenerative braking  ‘Hotel load’ management  Improved energy efficiency of new rolling stock.


These were mapped onto the trajectory, with conservative estimates taken of what could be viably implemented. The result is a near 5% drop in carbon emissions in 2018/19 compared to the business as usual case, taking emissions back to the 2009/10 level with an estimated £100 million saving on energy achievable within 2014 to 2019. However, the potential costs associated with implementing these interventions are not currently well enough understood to develop a detailed business case.


Barriers to greater efficiency This is a conservative view of what could be


European Railway Review Volume 18, Issue 1, 2012


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