2011 ohio Grain Farmers symposium


By Matt reese The 2011 Ohio Grain Farmers


Symposium covered a number of topics in the roomy Roberts Center in Wilmington. Matt Roberts, Ohio State University


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agricultural economist, started off the day with a presentation on what to expect in the markets. Prices have been strong but there is a lot of downside potential, he said. “We have a supply driven market,


not demand driven,” Roberts told attendees at the event. “Crop carries are small, and we are not going to see the scramble for bushels next summer. I would be moving my old crop when opportunities arise. If you see $6.30 or $6.40 May Corn futures, take it.” Ethanol use, feed use and exports


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Follow us on OSU ag economist Matt Roberts talks to the farmers at the 2011 Ohio Grain Farmers Symposium. 18 Crops • Ohio’s Country Journal • ocj.com • January 2012 800-447-5777


have all declined in response to higher prices and global supplies. The lesson, especially for corn, is to take marketing opportunities when they present them- selves, Roberts said. “Next year if we have trend line


yields of 161.3 bushels on the 94 mil- lion acres that a lot of people are talk- ing about, we’ll get 13.9 billion bushels, which is a lot of corn,” he said. “It is a reasonable scenario that prices could be down around $3.80 cash price at har- vest next fall and $4.50 average annual marketing price for 2012.” Soybean prices may be a bit


stronger. “Soybean exports are falling because


there are a lot of alternatives out there, and we are pretty high priced, but an extremely tight inventory is the new normal,” Roberts said. “I think there is a lot less downside in soybeans because I think they are going to lose about a million acres this year, and Brazil revised downward their current har- vest of beans. I think we could see an average marketing price around $12.25 in 2012.”


Roberts does not see much support


for high wheat prices moving forward, as stocks are ample despite the low acreage planted this fall. The farm bill was another common


topic of discussion at the event, and every political road leads directly to the budget in Washington right now, according to Joe Shultz, senior econo- mist for the U.S. Senate Committee of Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry. “The budget is driving the farm bill


process. It is a black hole that is suck- ing all the air out of Washington, D.C.,” Shultz said. “Congress invented the Super Committee with expedited pow- ers to address the budget deficit.” Of course, this effort did not work


out as planned, but Shultz is proud to point out that only agriculture rose to the challenge. “Only one committee in the U.S.


Congress stepped up and worked to create a reasonable plan to save money — the House and Senate Ag Committees,” he said to the crowd at the Symposium. “The thing that makes me proud to work in ag is that we were the only committee to come together on a bipartisan basis and give our fair share. We came up with $23 billion in cuts over 10 years. That is about 2% of the proposed cuts for the Super Committee, and agriculture is about 2% of the federal budget.” Moving forward, the budgetary


challenges will only increase for the farm bill. “The budget situation is only going


to get worse,” he said. “There are going to be some real challenges as agricul- ture programs are targeted for cuts.” Despite the challenges, Shultz said it


is still essential to maintain a safety net for agriculture. “There is broad agreement to move


away from direct payments to a risk management program. That is the


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