Scottish representation would cease (or be radically reduced) in the UK Parliament. Under a properly federal system it would not.
Indeed, George Foulkes and others already see the logic of federalism, even if it is taking the rest of the party a while to catch up. Labour has to think holistically and stop responding to May’s election result as if it is a Scotland-only problem. Te “Blue Labour” guru Maurice Glasman has been busy pushing ‘Englishness’ south of the border, which is not necessarily incompatible with a UK-wide constitutional shake-up. “To put it bluntly, the [Labour] party needs Scotland to govern England,” observed David Runciman in a recent edition of the London Review of Books. “In that sense, it is Stuart statecraft that will be required…But without a convincing account of the reason different national communities need to be joined together in a larger whole, under a leader who can claim to speak for all of them, Labour may be finished as an electoral force.”
A closer analysis of the 2011 Holyrood election reveals that that need not be the case. Only 22.6 per cent of the electorate voted SNP in May 2011, while its total vote – 902,915 – was 5,477 fewer than voted for Donald Dewar’s Labour Party in May 1999, when the turnout was also a lot higher. So Labour still has a remarkably strong voter base in Scotland,
although, of course, it would be foolish to take that for granted. Another problem is that Labour is now competing for the same votes as the SNP. Trough formidable organisation, clever tactics and steady, managerial government, the Nationalists have convinced many Scots that
“To put it bluntly, the Labour Party needs Scotland to govern England”
they can be trusted to run Scotland, while any fear of independence has been neutralised via an ever-distant and vaguely framed referendum. Tere is little Labour can say or do that will prick the SNP’s bubble of competence. But above all, the SNP has a purpose. For as long as Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom they can point to more powers, more autonomy and ultimately what they see as a better future. Even if the detail (or indeed point) of those complementary aims remains elusive, it gives the Nationalists momentum, a feeling of progress and forward political movement. Crucially, this clear raison d’être unites their
activists, attracts new members and, importantly, financial backers. Once a party (or indeed its leader) has a purpose, an attractive narrative can more easily be constructed around it. A constitutional strategy is the most important part of that narrative, next a handful of strong policies on social justice (where the SNP is weak), education and the economy. Ten comes leadership, and on this Labour simply has to accept there is no king over the water. Tom Harris is clever,
but perhaps a bit too clever. He could, however, pull it off had he a strong MSP running mate (a la Nicola Sturgeon in 2004), although that still begs the obvious question: who? So all is not lost for the original People’s Party.
Donald Dewar once referred to devolution as “independence in the UK”, which although paradoxical sounds pretty close to devolution- max. All the opinion polls show that is what middle Scotland wants, so a brave and strategically adept Scottish Labour Party would embrace that, lead the charge and at least stand a chance of making political life a little more uncomfortable for the SNP as a result.
19 September 2011
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