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Bluetongue risks will rise with climate change S


cientists have found concrete evidence that recent outbreaks of bluetongue


disease across Europe are linked to climate change. As the climate keeps changing, the risks are likely to keep rising. The researchers also linked a devastating


outbreak of bluetongue disease that hit northern Europe in 2006 to recent changes in our climate. The bluetongue virus affects animals


like sheep, cattle and goats and is spread by midges from animal to animal, just as mosquitoes spread malaria. It doesn’t infect people. The disease spreads fastest when it’s warm and wet, so scientists are concerned that climate change could make outbreaks more common. Until recently, bluetongue was restricted to


Africa, Asia, Australia and the Americas. But it spread to southern Europe from Africa in 1998, before moving north. Since then, more than 80,000 European bluetongue outbreaks have been reported, with millions of farm animals dying as a result. Several diseases are thought to be climate-


related, including malaria, Rift Valley fever and even seasonal flu. But whether or not they’re really driven by changes in our climate is more controversial. ‘Bluetongue is often cited as an example


of climate’s impact on the emergence of disease, but, until now, there was no study


that supported this,’ says Dr Andy Morse from the University of Liverpool, co-author of the study published in Interface, a Royal Society journal. He and European colleagues tackled the


question by developing a mathematical model of how it would spread in different climate conditions. They looked at the effect of past climate on


the changing risk of outbreaks over the last 50 years, to get a handle on what triggers these outbreaks. They then combined their model


with 11 climate models to project forward to the year 2050. This let them see how the disease might react to climate change. They found a definite connection between


the climate and the emergence of the disease. ‘A clear climate signal in northern Europe has allowed the virus to replicate,’ says Morse. He adds that because northern Europe is likely to warm relatively more than the south in the coming decades, it will experience a bigger increase in bluetongue outbreaks.


Nature gives UK free services worth billions B


ritain’s natural environment is worth billions of pounds a year, according to a


groundbreaking new study. The UK National Ecosystem Assessment


(NEA) shows that nature gives us many benefits that we’d soon miss if they disappeared, and that many of them are more valuable than you might think. For example, inland wetlands provide


benefits like water purification that are worth as much as £1.5 billion a year, while in 2002 woodlands provided social and environmental benefits estimated at £1.2 billion. But many of these ‘ecosystem services’


are under threat. Thirty per cent of those that researchers examined are declining, with just 20 per cent improving. Broadening our focus from things with an explicit price tag could improve many people’s lives.


04 PLANET EARTH Autumn 2011 The NEA draws on the knowledge of more


than 500 experts in ecology, economics and social sciences to study all the UK’s major ecosystem types. The first comprehensive, independent study to put a precise figure on many of the natural environment’s benefits, it will help policy-makers work out how to invest limited resources most effectively. ‘The UK National Ecosystem Assessment is


a vital step forward in our ability to understand the true value of nature and how to sustain the benefits it gives us,’ says Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman, noting that the NEA has helped shape the government’s forthcoming Natural Environment White Paper. ‘There are many fruit and vegetable crops


that we simply wouldn’t have if it wasn’t for insect pollinators, but we tend to assume they


are just available automatically,’ comments Professor Mark Bailey, director of the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, more than 20 of whose scientists took part in the NEA. ‘This isn’t true; they depend on a whole range of ecosystem services that most people never give a thought to,’ he adds. ‘We hope that with better information and communication that will start to change, and people will have more understanding of the benefits they get from the natural environment.’ Continued population growth and climate


change will put ecosystems under growing pressure in coming decades, so it’s vital we spend our resources where they will do most good.


Aliza Schlabach/istockphoto.com


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