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Commodity


Crude oil - Brent, London, $/bl, spot Gold, New York, $/oz.


Platinum, London, $/oz Antimony, London, $/tonne Cobalt, London, $/lb


Ferro Manganese, London, $/tonne Copper, spot, London, $/tonne Lead, spot, London, $/tonne


Aluminium, spot, London, $/tonne Cocoa, London, 3 months, £/tonne


Coffee, London, Robusta, 3 months, $/tonne


August 2nd, 2011


116.77 1626.1


1787-1797 14750 17


1275 9826 2627 2605 1857 2102


Coffee, New York, Arabica, 3 months, $/tonne 240.45 Sugar (raw), New York, 3 months, cents/lb Cotton, New York, 3 months, cents/lb


29.05 103


May 31st, 2011


116.48 1535.60


1832.10-1834 16250 19.25 1450 9224 2531 2648 1843 2558


263.50 23.25


158.67


Cutbacks at some South African producers also lent support to ferrochrome prices. Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of nickel and


palladium, expects prices to rise in the second half of the year because of investor demand. Norilsk Nickel accounts for 40% of world supplies of palladium which hit $822.52 per troy ounce on the LME end of July, up more than 10% that month. Platinum group metals (PGM) prices could continue to rise if coal strikes in South Africa lead to power cuts at key mines. South Africa supplies 80% of the world’s platinum.


METALS Copper climbed to a near four-month high on August 1 as strike action continued in Chile and as the US reached its financial deal. “Copper is one of the bellwether commodities in terms of reflecting economic health and confidence,” says MineLife analyst Gavin Wendt. Copper could reach a record near $11,000 a tonne before


year-end, as easing credit conditions for Chinese consumers spur buying and a pick-up in the global economy attracts hedge funds back to the market, Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon says. Copper supply has been constricted by declining ore quality and by recent strikes, from Indonesia to Chile, as well as by poor weather in Chile’s copper-rich north. “To us, the ongoing level of supply disruptions – up to 500,000 tonnes year-to-date – combined with expected Chinese consumer restocking, will keep the market in small deficit,” says Jim Lennon. This deficit should be around 330,000 tonnes this year, according to an average of 24 analysts polled by Reuters. Top world copper buyer China, having destocked for most of the first half, is poised to return to the market over the next few months, Lennon says. After that, loosening credit conditions should stimulate demand. Spot prices for high carbon ferrochrome moved up end of July


as traders bet that higher nickel prices will boost demand for stainless steel. When nickel prices are on the rise, stainless steel traders and end users tend to restock quickly before the monthly alloy surcharge comes into effect. Benchmark nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to $24,725 per tonne on July 29, up 15% from a seven-month low of $21,337 hit late June.


SOFTS


Over the past two months, Russia has aggressively undercut rivals to quickly re-establish itself in globalwheat export markets after an absence of almost a year. Top wheat importer Egypt was initially reluctant to allow Russia, by far its most important supplier in the pre-drought 2009/10 season, to participate in its tenders, but allowed them back end of July, not being able to resist the low prices offered. “Russian exporters need to re-establish their positions in their traditional markets,” says Andrei Sizov Sr, Chief Executive and President of agricultural analysts SovEcon. “If not for their aggressiveness, Russia would not have won the Egyptian tender.” France and the United States were Egypt’s key suppliers in the 2010/11 season. Estimates for the Russian harvest this year range to as high as 92 million tonnes (mt) of grain, although official estimates put the crop at 85mt, up from 61mt in 2010. The world’s top two rice exporters, Thailand and Vietnam,


are aiming for record exports this year, due to strong demand that will allow them to sell bumper crops at good prices. Thai benchmark 100% B-grade white rice sold at $555 per tonne end of July and the number one exporter expects to ship more than 10mt in 2011, up from 9mt last year. In the first half of the year, Thailand has already shipped 6.3mt, up 57% from the same period last year. Vietnam is expected to ship 6mt in the first nine


months of this year, up 13.2% from a year ago. Cocoa prices have been quite stable over the last weeks thanks


to a bumper 2010/11 crop, while expectations of a smaller 2011/12 crop underpinned prices. But differentials between Europe’s cash prices and futures market have been very high:


2011 | SEPTEMBER - OCTOBER | 41


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